Though proponents of sabermetrics would lead you to believe otherwise, there is no exact science to projecting how a minor leaguer will perform at the big league level. Some bonus baby first rounders are flops while late-round selections are successes. There are prospects who breeze through the farm system, struggle for the parent team and spend a bulk of their career at Triple-A. You also have examples are late bloomers (such as Kason Gabbard) - unheralded fringe prospects who have nondescript minor league careers until getting a chance in the Major Leagues and making the most of it.
As a self-admitted obsessed baseball enthusiast, I am almost as passionate about the Red Sox farm system as I am the big league team. Perhaps I feel this way because I recognize that it is more cost-effective and productive for a Major League team to develop its own players rather than taking a chance on high-priced free agents who do not always perform as expected (Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew are prime examples).
Red Sox Nation is now spoiled because of names like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Delcarmen, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon - guys who have climbed through the Red Sox minor league system and are now contributing at the Major League level. Already in 2008, we have seen more of the future in Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. All of these players are bonafide Major Leaguers. Some are more proven than others, but it is evident that all will have successful Major League careers.
Then you have the opposite. Today, it was announced that the Red Sox released Abe Alvarez. Once a highly touted prospect, the soft-throwing left-hander was Boston's second round selection in 2003 out of Long Beach State. After starting nine games and posting a 0.00 ERA in 19 innings for short-season Lowell that year, he spent much of 2004 at Double-A Portland, and made his Major League debut with the Red Sox , allowing five runs and eight hits in five innings during his lone start that year.
Though Alvarez has a fast ball that tops out in the mid-80s, he has good command of his pitches, and was projected to be a Jamie Moyer-type who could have success based on location. That wasn't the case, though. Alvarez's career stalled at Triple-A, where his best ERA was 4.77, which he posted last season. The 25-year-old Alvarez, who made one relief appearance for Boston in 2005 and two more in 2006, was moved to the bullpen this year, and was 2-1 with a 6.46 ERA when he was released. His command was not good enough, the Red Sox deemed. When you throw in the 80s, that is a recipe for disaster on the mound.
Now that Pedroia, Buchholz, Lester, Delcarmen and Ellsbury have graduated to the big leagues in the last two seasons, Lowrie and Moss are the only prime-time prospects remaining at Pawtucket. Masterson will likely be joining them at some point this season, if he doesn't bypass Triple-A and head directly into the Red Sox bullpen. Most of the next wave of top prospects in the Red Sox organization are now playing at advanced Single-A Lancaster and Single-A Greenville. Others are ticketed to join Lowell when the short-season New York-Penn League begins.
Here is a team-by-team look at prospects to watch within the Red Sox farm system:
Triple-A Pawtucket
Boston's best shortstop is no longer with the Red Sox now that Jed Lowrie was optioned to Pawtucket when Alex Cora was activated from the disabled list. Ideally, Lowrie would start at shortstop for Boston, and Cora would serve as the utility infielder, but the starting job belongs to the erratic Julio Lugo. Lowrie - who hit .310 and played solid defense at second, shortstop and third during his stint with the Red Sox - will play every day at Pawtucket. Most of his time will be spent at shortstop, but the versatile rookie will also play some first, second and third. Next year, Lowrie will likely be the starting shortstop in Boston, but this season he will at least contribute again when rosters are expanded in September. And if an injury strikes anywhere in the Red Sox infield, he is a phone call away.
As for Moss, he will return to the Pawtucket outfield once he recovers from an emergency appendectomy. The 24-year-old left-handed hitter can play all three outfield positions - though he is most comfortable in right field - and he is solid at the plate and on defense. Moss will see more time at first base for the Paw Sox. Chances are, he will serve as the fourth outfielder for Boston in 2009.
Beyond Lowrie and Moss, most of Pawtucket's roster is composed of fringe prospects, minor league veterans and former big leaguers hoping for another chance in The Show. Craig Hansen may be ticketed for a return to Pawtucket as early as today. If so, he will represent the third top prospect in a Paw Sox uniform.
George Kottaras and Dusty Brown are considered Major League-caliber backup catchers. Brown is better on defense while Kottaras has a better bat than Brown. Both can catch the knuckleball. In case you aren't aware, Charlie Zink is a knuckleballer who is 4-2 with a 2.91 ERA in eight starts at Pawtucket. Now 27, Boston signed Zink as a minor league free agent at the recommendation of Luis Tiant, who coached him at the Savannah (Ga.) College of Art and Design. Yes, they have a baseball team.
Zink has emerged as a viable candidate to make spot starts for the Red Sox. Left-handed Michael Tejera and right-hander David Pauley are also possibilities Terry Francona might consider. Of course, Bartolo Colon is not considered a prospect, but he will see more action at Pawtucket until the Red Sox summon him to Boston.
Chris Carter, a left-handed hitting first baseman and left fielder, has produced big numbers at Triple-A for Arizona and now Boston. He was blocked by Conor Jackson in the Diamondbacks organization. In Boston, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz are the obstacles. Carter, whose defense is below average, is off to another solid start at the plate, but he is likely a trade chip since the Red Sox have more prominent first base prospects at the lower levels, including Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo.
Double-A Portland
The Sea Dogs are stocked with starting pitchers who could all make their way to Boston by 2010. You already know about Masterson, who Peter Gammons believes will join the Red Sox this summer in a relief role. If you are a Sox and Pinstripes regular, you probably have heard of Michael Bowden, too. If not traded, the 21-year-old Bowden could break into the Red Sox rotation in 2010, and even make his Major League debut next year in a spot start.
Left-handers Dustin Richardson and Kris Johnson are other names to remember. Standing 6-foot-6 like Masterson, the 24-year-old Richardson is projected as a reliever at the Major League level. This is good news since, aside from Hideki Okajima, Boston does not have a reliable left-hander in the bullpen. Johnson, who has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts, is 23 and was Boston's first round draft pick out of Wichita State in 2006. He is expected to remain a starter.
The other prospect at Portland to watch is Mark Wagner. He has surpassed Kottaras as Boston's catcher of the future. The 23-year-old Wagner, who is batting .309 for the Sea Dogs, has a solid bat, a strong arm, blocks balls well and calls a good game. If he continues to develop at Portland and then Pawtucket, Wagner could be the backup catcher and heir apparent to Jason Varitek by 2010. I think Boston will resign the captain to a three-year deal in the off-season. By 2010, Varitek will need to have more days off, and Wagner would benefit from spending two seasons learning from the best catcher Boston has fielded since Carlton Fisk.
Single-A Lancaster
Evaluating prospects at advanced Single-A Lancaster is difficult since the California League is known for hitting-friendly ballparks where routine fly balls become home runs. Batting averages and power numbers are inflated along with ERAs. Boston's working agreement with Lancaster ends at the end of this season, when the Red Sox will relocate their advanced Single-A affiliate back east. Until then, there are an array of exciting prospects on the Jet Hawks roster.
My favorite is Josh Reddick, a right fielder who is widely recognized as one of Boston's top 10 minor leaguers. Just 21, Reddick has already received a promotion this year after batting .340 in 53 at-bats for Single-A Greenville. He has continued his tear at Lancaster, where he has recorded a .328 average with four home runs and nine RBI in 64 at-bats. A contact hitter who is improving his power, Reddick has a strong and accurate arm, and is considered a solid defensive outfielder. With Moss Major League ready, and Reddick rapidly ascending through the farm system, J.D. Drew will likely be playing elsewhere by 2010.
Lars Anderson is regarded as Boston's first baseman of the future. The 20-year-old left-handed hitting Anderson is currently hitting . 254 with five home runs and 18 RBI. He has a smooth power stroke, and is defensively sound. Reid Engel (.320, five home runs, 19 RBI), a 20-year-old outfielder and Chih-Hsien Chang (.271, 3, 16), a 20-year-old second baseman, are also names that Red Sox fans will become more acquainted with in the next two years.
Single-A Greenville
Jacoby Ellsbury fans will like Ryan Kalish. The 20-year-old outfielder grew up a Red Sox fan and has an abundance of speed, a strong arm and hits the ball hard, rarely striking out. Kalish's numbers may be down for a portion of 2008 since he had a wrist injury late last season. However, like Reddick, Kalish should make a rapid climb through the Red Sox system.
Moss, Reddick and Kalish draw the most attention among Boston's outfield prospects. A name you will hear more often is Che-Hsuan Lin. Signed as an international free agent out of Taiwan last year, the 19-year-old Lin has exceptional speed, hits to all fields and has a remarkably strong arm. Lin already has 15 stolen bases along with three home runs and 17 RBI in 142 at-bats.
After being selected in the first round by the Red Sox in 2006 (interestingly, he was originally chosen in the 20th round by the Yankees in 2003, but wisely decided to attend the University of North Carolina), Daniel Bard had a rocky start to his professional baseball career. As a starter, he was roughed up at Greenville and Lancaster. The power pitcher who throws a high 90s heater could not find the strike zone. He has been converted to a reliever, and the results are impressive so far this year. Bard has a 0.69 ERA in 13 games and 26 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .148 against him, and he has 42 strikeouts. Since the Red Sox do not want to shatter Bard's regained confidence, I imagine he will skip the hitting-friendly California League and proceed to Double-A Portland when the time is right.
Though they are early in their professional careers, 18-year-old shortstop Oscar Tejeda (signed as an international free agent in 2006) and 18-year-old first baseman Anthony Rizzo (Boston's sixth round choice last year out of high school) are heralded by the Red Sox organization. That they are already playing at Single-A Greenville is a testament to their abilities. Most 18-year-olds are assigned to the Gulf Coast League or stay in extended spring training.
Rizzo - who is on the disabled list because of kidney inflammation but is hitting .373 in 83 at-bats - could eventually surpass Anderson as the Red Sox top first base prospect. The Red Sox expect Tejeda to make a swift ascent through the farm system, but he could be moved from shortstop to either third base or center field, according to SoxProspects.com. Of course, Sox Prospects compares him to Julio Lugo. Why malign a promising prospect with that label?
I will not devote time to players in extended spring training, many of which will be assigned to Lowell, until their season begins. Names that you will become familiar with are Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Dent, Michael Almanzar and Drake Britton. Also keep Stolmy Pimentel in your mind. The 18-year-old right-hander is one of Boston's top Latin pitching prospects. You can learn more about the aforementioned players at http://www.soxprospects.com.
Though there is no such thing as "a sure thing" when talking about minor league prospects, here are 10 players in the Red Sox organization I believe will help at the big league level by 2010 (the year they will contribute to the Red Sox is listed in parenthesis):
- Jed Lowrie (2008 and 2009)
- Brandon Moss (2008 and 2009)
- Craig Hansen (2008 and 2009)
- Justin Masterson (2008 and 2009)
- Michael Bowden (2010)
- Josh Reddick (2010)
- Mark Wagner (2010)
- Daniel Bard (2010)
- Lars Anderson (2010)
- Dustin Richardson (2010)
Please keep in mind that this is not a Top 10 prospects list. Also, when I write that a player will contribute in the year in parenthesis, I don't mean that he will undoubtedly stick with the Red Sox that season (though I do think that the first four on the list will be in the big leagues for good next season). At the least, I believe that these players will at least serve in a short-term role (like Lowrie and Moss have this season) in case of injuries.
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