Often times on this site we have talked about how baseball has many twists and turns throughout the span of a 162-game season. It's impossible to know anything is for certain. The majority of predictions we make in the pre-season will look foolish by November if we only went back and checked up on them. Last year not even any ESPN "experts" chose the Phillies OR the Rays to make the World Series. Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, is completely unpredictable because the sport is twice as long as anything else. That's why in April we could feel like this team was no different than last year, in May we could feel like the Yankees will win the division and the World Series and in June like Girardi should be fired and the core blown up from the Bronx Bombers.
Statistics don't always tell the story either. For instance, the Yankees are 11th in team ERA in the American League right now, yet second in Batting Average Against. Though much was made of their poor play against the Marlins and Nationals, and though much has also been made of Red Sox dominance against the NL in recent years, the two teams finished within a game of each other in 2009 during interleague play (the Sox were 11-7 and the Yankees were 10-8). The Yankees are first in long balls given up by the bullpen, but their bullpen has seen the likes of: Marte, Albaladejo Ramirez, Veras and Claggett all come and go, and those names being the biggest culprits of such poor bullpen numbers. Alfredo Aceves, Brett Tomko, Phil Hughes and Dave Robertson were all not on the Opening Day roster, and yet they comprise more than half the names of Yankees' relievers in the present day. Tomko is the long man and is interchangeable, you won't see him here by the time September comes around. In fact, it would shock me if there wasn't a name from outside the organization here to help out by the trade deadline because bullpen depth is the one place there is a glaring weakness on this team. It doesn't hurt so much when the good Burnett is here, the team scores runs when Pettitte pitches, the real Wang is on the mound and Joba and Sabathia are throwing well, nor is it as dangerous with Aceves and Hughes back there, but it's still a weakness nonetheless.
Anyway, New York has made improvements yet still ranks as one of the worst bullpens in the league despite their current pitchers having these numbers:
Rivera: 2.93
Hughes: 1.50 (as a reliever in 12 innings)
Aceves 2.16
Robertson: 2.60
Bruney: 2.84
Coke: 3.31
Just as the Sox did with Javier Lopez, the Yankees will cut ties with Tomko, whether that means a Melancon or Dunn callup, or an external acquisition, Brett Tomko will not bring down this bullpen in big moments. Other than him, you're talking about six healthy arms presently throwing the ball well. They've found their groove, Bruney is healthy, and Robertson and Coke seem to be building from their experience last year. As I have said repeatedly and all along, as soon as these guys had designated roles, they would throw the ball well. Now you see Bruney in the eighth inning, Hughes and Aceves in the sixth and seventh, Tomko in long relief and mopup, Coke against lefties in big spots and Robertson as the swingman while Rivera closes and all of a sudden these guys seem confident and effective. It's not a science, relievers are creatures of nature, when they have a routine, they thrive. It's that simple. One more arm will turn this initial weakness into an overwhelming strength. Of course, this also depends heavily on the health of the rotation. If Wang and Chamberlain go down like last year, you're taking Hughes out of his effective bullpen role and converting him back and maybe Aceves is coming with him. Then there's issues again. Hence another reason they could use another arm. For now, Hughes has been a major addition and if Bruney struggles to throw strikes they may flip-flop in their roles, Hughes is that good.
Which brings me to my next point: Notice how this all comes full circle. It was a matter of time before foolish Yankees fans and probable critics started raising the question whether Hughes should become a reliever from now on. Here's a newsflash in case you missed it the first eight million times: Good starters make great relievers. Their velocity improves, their numbers improve, their adrenaline raises. Instead of pacing themselves for seven innings, they only need to face three to six batters on a normal night, and logically, all three of those variables come into play. Any great starting pitcher or pitcher with the potential to be a great starting pitcher, whether it's Hughes, Chamberlain, Beckett, Lester, Santana, Halladay or anybody else, would make an excellent reliever. That's why you saw John Smoltz and Derek Lowe strive as closers. But remember this: Eighth inning guys are much, much, easier to find than front of the rotation starters.
Hughes and Chamberlain don't have ace numbers yet, but as you can see, they were both improving as starters and both are under 24 years of age and not in their primes yet. Yankee Universe will be much happier with Hughes and Chamberlain joining Sabathia as a three headed monster, than suring up the end of close games, trust me. For now, when Joba is having mechanical issues or Hughes is giving up long balls to begin games, naysayers are going to think they are brilliant. Anytime Brian Bruney blows a one run lead, people will panic, but in the long run, if you have any foresight, if you have any knowledge of how baseball works, you will realize championships are won from the guys who begin games, whether it's a starter or a position player, not by the guys who finish them, whether it's a reliever or a bench player.
And speaking of those bench players, isn't it nice to see the Yankees start to get a taste of what Sox fans saw in 2007 with their own team? A little rebuilding from within, a coming of age season? Ramiro Pena, Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli may not be in the majors for long this season, and especially won't be starting in the lineup. None of them may even end up as longterm starters, period. But isn't it nice to see three homegrowns make an impact to this team? Pena's glove and pesky hitting has been invaluable this year, particularly with A-Rod not being 100% and Ransom being injured and ineffective. Cervelli replaced Molina so well, some people are reluctant to let the best backup in the game get his job back.
Others are even unhappy when Jorge Posada starts at this point. Brett Gardner, like at every other level of the franchise, is proving he just needed time to adjust as he has turned into a .290 hitter with a mid-3 OBP and a tenacity for stealing bases (17/19 this season). He was a desperate move last year, failed, gained his job back with a huge spring, failed again, and now has taken his job back once more, but this time he seems like he can stick. Regardless, it wouldn't shock me if Gardner was on this team for the longterm in some capacity with Nick Swisher the next few years and someone like Melky Cabrera, who is young, has rebuilt his trade value and has had some clutch hits, gets traded for a team need.
Outfield isn't the problem even with Damon and Matsui gone next year, because at worst you're probably looking at Jackson, Gardner and Swisher in the mix in 2010, if not other names too. I am not one of the people on board with Pena and Cervelli both getting sent down now that Molina and Ransom are healthy. In fact, I think Pena can find enough at bats for when Cano runs into his slumps, Jeter needs a day off down the stretch and A-Rod needs his day off weekly where his at bats can be justified at the MLB level (remember when people were concerned Swisher wouldn't get enough playing time?) and he can stay with the big club. Cervelli, I've come to terms with should be sent down so he can get regular playing time and Pena can also act as the late-inning pinch runner, which is another reason you need one to stay here. Gardner will be playing everyday more than likely which makes the bench: Cabrera/Swisher, Molina, Ransom and Pena. That makes a switch hitter, two righties and a lefty. You can add Shelley Duncan for power if you wanted for days when Swisher is starting. Regardless, the fact of the matter is all those names you kept hearing about (and some you didn't) are starting to get old enough with enough experience where they are making impacts in the majors. It's a day long resented by critics of the farm system, but one inevitably bound to happen. WIthout: Cervelli, Pena, Gardner, Cabrera, Robertson, Hughes, Chamberlain and Coke, this team would have failed already in the wake of injuries.
It's conceivable the following names will be on this team in some capacity long term: Teixeira, Cano, Pena, Cervelli, Gardner/Cabrera (the other will be traded, you can mark it down), Jackson, Sabathia, Robertson, Hughes, Chamberlain, Aceves. Obviously there are variables: Jackson hasn't had a MLB at bat yet, maybe Cervelli or Pena falls below MLB bench caliber, perhaps Robertson doesn't cut it. Those are possibilities, but at this point I wouldn't say realistic ones. If you believe all of those names can play some sort of role, that means 11 roster spots are sewn up for the conceivable future. This list doesn't include: Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, Posada, Bruney or Coke, who we don't know exactly how long they can still play, at what position, or if they will be traded. I have to believe out of this list, four years from now maybe one of them is playing where they are right now, and in this uniform.
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