Pitching dominates list of Sox Top 20 prospects

David Ortiz told the Boston Herald that he believes the Minnesota Twins will keep Johan Santana, Roger Clemens issued a video statement proclaiming that he has never taken illegal performance-enhancing substances, the Boston Celtics look impressive at 22-3 and the New England Patriots are poised to become the first team in NFL history to finish the regular season with a 16-0 record.

In a paragraph, this sums up the last week's sports world news for a Boston sports enthusiast. Though I am a devoted Steelers fan in football, I am rooting for a Patriots victory over the New York Giants this weekend. I dislike everything New York in professional sports.

That said, my most recent post explored Red Sox prospect lists the last few years, demonstrating how opinions of who is a top prospect and who is not change on an annual basis. Jed Lowrie is a prime example. When Boston selected him out of Stanford in the first round of the 2005 draft, Lowrie was projected as a highly regarded middle infielder. He slipped down the prospect list after experiencing an injury-plagued 2006 season but returned to prominence with a solid 2007 at Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket. Some baseball officials believe the 23-year-old Lowrie will be a strong Major League shortstop while others think he is best suited for second base. Regardless, he is part of the package Boston has offered the Twins for Santana, so his stock is high once again.

Craig Hansen is a player who has seen his stock rise and plummet since he was chosen in the first round in 2005. Armed with a mid to high 90s heater and a biting slider, Hansen was considered Boston's closer of the future when he joined the organization from St. John's University. After the draft, he pitched three innings in the Gulf Coast League, 9.2 innings at Portland and then three innings for the Sox, posting a 6.00 ERA at the big league level. His confidence was shattered in 2006 when he recorded a 6.63 ERA in 38 games and 38 innings and was sent to Pawtucket. Now 24, Hansen spent the entire 2007 season with the PawSox, accumulating a 3-1 record and a 3.86 ERA. He struggled in the first half, but showed signs of improvement after the All-Star break. He will battle for a spot in the Sox bullpen in spring training, but chances are he will open 2008 at Pawtucket.

Until Theo Epstein's arrival, there was little reason to follow Boston's farm system. Now player development is a key part of the current front office's plan to help the Sox maintain their position as one of the game's most successful franchises. Media outlets like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and SoxProspects.com compile their rankings of Boston's top prospects. Before I present mine, let me mention a few notes:

• I do not consider Jon Lester a prospect since he has spent parts of the last two seasons at the big league level.
• I do not consider guys like Devern Hansack (29), Craig Breslow (27), Edgar Martinez (26) and Mike James (26) prospects because of their age. All four still have Major League potential, but they are not top prospects, in my opinion.
• The Sox have several highly regarded players they selected out of high school in the 2007 draft, and some saw little or no action in the minor leagues this year. This is the reason that guys like Will Middlebrooks and Ryan Dent are lower on my list than other prospect rankings. It is too early to consider someone a top 10 prospect when he has appeared in zero or few professional games. Legitimate prospect status must be earned with time in the minor leagues.

Now that those points are made, here is my list of the Sox Top 20 prospects:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, center field - There is a debate about whether Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz is Boston's best prospect. I chose Ellsbury because of his tremendous ability to impact a game in multiple ways. He can line a base hit, find a gap for a double or triple, slug the occasional home run, steal a base, easily advance from first to third or second to home on a single and make stellar defensive plays in the outfield. He also has a high baseball IQ. He's a born leader.
2. Clay Buchholz, starting pitcher - At 23, the right-handed power pitcher showcases the poise of a savvy veteran. He seemed unfazed in the later innings of the no-hitter he tossed against Baltimore in his second career start. With a mid 90s fast ball, two effective change-ups and one of the best curve balls in the game, Buchholz has a deep arsenal. He would already be a No. 2 starter for a small market team. In Boston, he will likely open the 2008 season at No. 5 in the rotation.
3. Lars Anderson, first base - The Sox are well-stocked with promising corner infield prospects, and Anderson is atop the list. A solid defensive first baseman, the 6-foot-4 left-hander hits for average and has not scratched the surface with his power potential. The 20-year-old Anderson will likely start 2008 at Single-A Lancaster, and could be promoted to Double-A Portland before season's end.
4. Jed Lowrie, shortstop/second base - Lowrie has more speed and more power than Dustin Pedroia, but like the Sox 2007 Rookie of the Year, he is an intelligent player with a dedicated work ethic. The Sox like Lowrie's plate discipline and attention to the fundamentals. It was believed that Lowrie might have to shift to second base at the big league level, but his defense at shortstop has improved, and - like David Eckstein - he could have a long career as a shortstop or a second baseman. If the Twins accept Boston's offer, Lowrie might be the opening day shortstop for Minnesota. If he remains with the Sox, he could see time at the Major League level in 2008 if an injury arises to Dustin Pedroia, Julio Lugo or Alex Cora.
5. Justin Masterson, pitcher - Many analysts believe that Justin Masterson has surpassed Michael Bowden as Boston's best pitching prospect behind Clay Buchholz. The 6-foot-6, 245-pound right-hander was selected in the second round of the 2006 draft out of San Diego State. His out pitch is a sinker, and he also possesses an effective change-up and a slider. Masterson has the tools to become a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, or a solid set-up man. If he is not shipped to the Twins, the 22-year-old Masterson will probably open the season in Portland's starting rotation.
6. Ryan Kalish, outfielder - If you like Jacoby Ellsbury, you will also enjoy watching Ryan Kalish. A lifelong Red Sox fan, the 19-year-old from New Jersey has excellent bat speed, an abundance of speed on the basepaths and a knack for reaching base. His 2007 season at Single-A Lowell was cut short when he had surgery to remove the hamate bone from his wrist. He is expected to be fully healed when he opens 2008 at Single-A Greenville.
7. Michael Bowden, pitcher - How quick we are to lose faith in a prospect. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden were mentioned in the same breath earlier this year, but while Buchholz dominated minor league competition and then opened eyes at the big league level, Bowden struggled at times at Portland after dominating at Single-A Lancaster. Overall, the 21-year-old Bowden was 8-6 with a 4.28 ERA in Double-A, allowing 105 hits in 96.2 innings. The numbers are not a concern as Bowden has the tools, he just needs more time to develop his secondary pitches. In 2008, Bowden will likely return to the Portland rotation. If he remains in the organization, he will probably arrive in Boston by 2009 or 2010.
8. Brandon Moss, outfielder - Next to Ellsbury and Buchholz, Moss is Boston's most Major League ready prospect. He is another high baseball IQ guy who hits to all fields, knows how to get on base, plays a solid right field and has a strong arm. In 2007, the Sox had three Major League ready outfield prospects in Ellsbury, David Murphy and Moss. Now that Murphy is in Texas and Ellsbury will be Boston's starting center fielder if he is not dealt to Minnesota, Moss is a candidate to make the Sox as the fourth outfielder. Since he is a left-handed hitter, and the Sox need a right-handed hitting corner outfielder, that could prevent Moss from breaking spring training in a Red Sox uniform, but he offers valuable insurance in case an injury occurs.
9. Nick Hagadone, pitcher - The 6-foot-5, 230-pound left-hander turns 22 on New Year's Day. He is on the fast track after Boston selected him out of the University of Washington as a sandwich pick in the 2007 draft. Hagadone was exceptional at Single-A Lowell and is slated to open the 2008 season at Greenville. Like Jonathan Papelbon, Hagadone did not tax his arm in college. He has a fast ball that ranges from 92-95, a nasty slider and a decent change-up. It is too early to tell if Hagadone will be a starter or a reliever at the big league level, but either will be fine. After all, you can never have too many reliable lefties.
10. Craig Hansen, relief pitcher - I offered my take on Hansen earlier in this post. Though he did not look good at the big league level and struggled at Pawtucket for part of the 2007 season, Hansen is still part of Boston's plans, as he should be with a mid 90s fast ball and a slider that is dangerous when effective. I think he will follow Manny Delcarmen's lead as a Sox prospect who regains his confidence and proves that he belongs in the big leagues. At some point in 2008, Hansen will contribute to the Red Sox bullpen.
11. Chris Carter, first baseman/left fielder - If only Chris Carter was better in the field. Now 25, the left-handed slugger was part of the three-team deal that sent Wily Mo Pena to Washington last summer. His path in the Arizona organization was blocked by Conor Jackson. In Boston, the obstacles are Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Carter is a smart batter who hits for average and produces runs. He offers the Sox insurance in case Youkilis is injured. Chances are, with Lars Anderson and Aaron Bates as highly regarded first base prospects in the Boston organization, Carter will eventually be traded. He will start the 2008 season as Boston's backup first baseman or Pawtucket's starting first baseman.
12. Oscar Tejeda, shortstop - Eventually, Oscar Tejeda could climb to the top of this list. As for now, he is 19, and he has only had a cup of coffee at Single-A Lowell. Still, there is a reason why Tejeda opened eyes in the Sox orgnization this year. He has tremendous speed, a strong arm and a knack of reaching base. His range at shortstop is impressive, and his glove is decent, but he is prone to throwing errors. Sounds like Julio Lugo, doesn't it? Like many shortstop prospects in the lower levels of the minor leagues, Tejeda could end up at another position - like third base or the outfield. The Sox signed him as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2006, and he is a player whose name will be common knowledge among Sox fans in two years.
13. Josh Reddick, outfielder. Another left-handed hitter - the Sox farm system seems to be overflowing with them - Josh Reddick can play all three outfield positions, much like David Murphy, who was part of the trade that brought Eric Gagne to Boston. He hit for average (.306) and power (18 home runs, 72 RBI) at Greenville this year. The Sox like him because of his defensive versatility and his ability as a contact hitter. Reddick will be 21 in February, and he will likely start the 2008 season at Single-A Lancaster.
14. Aaron Bates, first baseman - Aaron Bates is adequate in the field, but he has strong power potential at the plate, and his plate discipline fits Boston's organizational philosophy. Since Lars Anderson is the team's top first base prospect, Bates could eventually be traded. As for 2008, he will probably open the season at Double-A Portland.
15. Kris Johnson, pitcher - A tall and wiry left-hander, Kris Johnson recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2005 while he was at Wichita State University and survived the hitting-friendly California League this year. Johnson, who is 23, has an effective fast ball, curve ball and change-up. He was a first round draft pick in 2006 and will likely begin 2008 at Portland.
16. Dustin Richardson, pitcher - The Sox seem to have a lot of tall left-handed pitchers in their farm system, which is a good thing. Dustin Richardson stands 6-foot-6 and was Boston's sixth round draft pick in 2006 out of Texas Tech. The 23-year-old (who will turn 24 in January) has posted solid numbers at Lowell, Greenville and Lancaster. He projects as a reliever at the big league level.
17. Will Middlebrooks, shortstop - Baseball America raves about Will Middlebrooks, and with good reason. He is a five-tool player who is a contact hitter and a high on-base percentage guy. Like Oscar Tejeda, Middlebrooks is a shortstop who could be moved to third base. A true athlete, Middlebrooks dominated high school baseball in Texas as a position player and a pitcher.  A fifth round pick in 2007, he will likely open next season at Single-A Lowell.
18. Daniel Bard, pitcher - A first round selection in 2006, Daniel Bard was a college teammate of Andrew Miller, the phenom who reached the majors with Detroit and was one of the prospects traded to Florida for Miguel Cabrera. Unlike Miller, Bard's career has stalled. The 22-year-old right-hander has a mid to high 90s fast ball with an array of secondary pitches, all which need improvement. Bard struggled as a starting pitcher this year at Greenville and Lancaster, but he was dominant as a reliever in the Hawaiian Winter League. Control and confidence are issues with Bard, but his performance in Hawaii could open the door for a faster track to the big leagues as a reliever.
19. Ryan Dent, shortstop - A contact hitter with a lot of speed, Ryan Dent will likely be moved to second base or the outfield. He was a first round pick out of high school this year. Dent will probably open the 2008 season at Lowell. And no, he is not related to that other Dent.
20. George Kottaras, catcher - George Kottaras was considered San Diego's catcher of the future until he was traded to Boston for David Wells in 2006. The lanky 24-year-old's offense is ahead of his defense, but he struggled at the plate with Pawtucket this year, though he did rebound in the second half. Kottaras could earn the backup catcher's job for Boston in 2008, but likely he will share catching duties with Dusty Brown at Pawtucket.

Ranking an organization's top prospects is not an easy task, nor is it an exact science. It is all speculation. Michael Almanzar, Che-Hsuan Lin, Jason Place, Reid Engel, Bubba Bell and Mark Wagner are all worthy of Top 20 consideration, though I am hesitant to include someone like Almanzar, who is a 17-year-old infielder from the Dominican Republic who could rocket to the Top 10 in a short time but has yet to play an inning of professional baseball.

The bottom line about Boston's farm system is this:

• The Sox are well-stocked with corner infielders, middle infielders, outfielders and left-handed pitchers.
• Like most Major League organizations, the Sox do not have a standout catching prospect, though guys like Dusty Brown, George Kottaras and Mark Wagner seem to have potential as solid backup backstops at the big league level.
• Theo Epstein seems to be mimicking Minnesota's philosophy of developing a bullpen from within. Justin Masterson, Craig Hansen, Dustin Richardson, Daniel Bard, Hunter Jones and Adam Mills are among the most promising candidates.
• Kudos to John Henry for giving Theo Epstein and company the money to sign high-profile international free agents (like Michael Almanzar and Che-Hsuan Lin) and picks who would have been selected much earlier in the draft if other teams were not hesitant because of the player's anticipated financial demands (Lars Anderson among others).