A little late on the report, but Baseball America released their top 10 Yankees prospects this week.
| 1. | Joba Chamberlain, rhp |
| 2. | Austin Jackson, of |
| 3. | Jose Tabata, of |
| 4. | Ian Kennedy, rhp |
| 5. | Alan Horne, rhp |
| 6. | Jesus Montero, c |
| 7. | Jeff Marquez, rhp |
| 8. | Brett Gardner, of |
| 9. | Ross Ohlendorf, rhp |
| 10. | Andrew Brackman, rhp |
Not many surprises here. Phil Hughes was excluded for his amount of major league innings and is no longer considered a prospect; he had the top spot in 2005 and 2006. Unfortunately the innings cap might prevent Joba or Hughes from rookie of the year consideration (if Hughes is indeed eligible) but I'm ok with that.
Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata's presense in the top three is an encouraging sign for Yankees fans. Tabata had an injured wrist last year (similar to Coco Crisp in 2006) and still managed to hit .300 with a lack of power. Expect him and Jackson in AA Trenton. With Matsui, Damon and Abreu's contracts up by the end of 2009, the fact two outfielders are among the elite Yankees prospects spells good fortune for New York. Expect to see Ross Ohlendorf in the Yankees bullpen this season and Brett Gardner to get a look in the majors at some point. Gardner has near Ellsbury speed and could complete the trio of young and high ceiling outfielders for the Yankees' future. He might start in AAA this year. As we all are probably aware, the issue with the Yankees farm lies in the infield, where only Robinson Cano is a below-30 potential fixture for years to come.
Baseball America projects this in 2011:
| Catcher | Austin Romine |
| First Base | Jesus Montero |
| Second Base | Robinson Cano |
| Third Base | Alex Rodriguez |
| Shortstop | Derek Jeter |
| Left Field | Brett Gardner |
| Center Field | Austin Jackson |
| Right Field | Jose Tabata |
| Designated Hitter | Bob Abreu |
| No. 1 Starter | Joba Chamberlain |
| No. 2 Starter | Phil Hughes |
| No. 3 Starter | Chien-Ming Wang |
| No. 4 Starter | Ian Kennedy |
| No. 5 Starter | Alan Horne |
| Closer | Mark Melancon |
Romine has started to open some eyes from the catcher's position, which has been long barren pretty much since Posada rose to prominance in the Yankees' system. We covered the trio in the outfield and BA agrees all three could and should be solid major leaguers. I can tell you one thing, that outfield would be defensively superior to the current one. Expect all of them to be major league ready by 2010 if they are going to pan out. I think assuming Horne, Chamberlain, Kennedy and Hughes all pan out is a bit optimistic but you expect that from a site that concentrates on minor league baseball. Seeing five homegrowns in the Yankees rotation might give a few people seizures and I would expect four of those five at best with one free agent or trade acquisition in the next three years. By 2009, all of those prospects in the rotation are due to be ready.
Mark Melancon is another interesting prospect. Along with JB Cox and Humberto Sanchez, Melancon missed all of 2007 and along with Sanchez, due to Tommy John surgery. I don't know much about him yet, but I will be monitoring him all season long, he apparently has electric stuff, which would make sense if he is being projected as Rivera's successor. I would think he will be in the bullpen by 2009, but could be a September callup.
This is where it gets interesting. Jeter is projected to be the starting shortstop at the age of 36, which makes his range very scary, but we will see how that works out, he's obviously going to be SOMEWHERE in 2011. A-Rod and Cano we know will be at third and second. Romine seems like wishful thinking for now at catcher, but the Yankees have a couple of other options like that too. The notable one is Jesus Montero at first. I would imagine Montero and Miranda are the top Yankees' first base prospects, both of whom have far jumped past Eric Duncan, who was ranked one of the top Yankees prospects of the decade and the top Yankees prospect in all of the farm system in 2005. Miranda came from Cuba and hits lefty with some pop, Montero was signed as a catcher at age 17, but he is so massive and has so much power that many think he will outgrow the catcher position and be converted to first base. Either situation works for the Yankees right now. Do I think either of them play in the majors? If Mark Teixera is not resigned by the Braves, I can't see the Yankees sitting out of that free agent frenzy so we will have to see.
I'm not sure if it is due to injuries or that they will end up in middle relief, but keep your eyes on Sanchez and Cox coming off of their injuries. Sanchez was the main piece in the Gary Sheffield trade and at one point was expected to be the 1-2 punch to Phil Hughes before Kennedy, Joba or Sanchez's TJ ever came along. Now there are rumors that he will be converted into a reliever-he could be the setup man of the future, but not until 2009 at the earliest I'd imagine. Melancon has more of a chance to pull a "Joba" this year. Dellin Betances, Kevin Whelan (if he can ever control his stuff), and guys like Jose Veras, Ross Ohlendorf and others have the potential to fill out the Yankees bullpen, some of them in spring training. There is a high chance that the Yankees can find their own Manny Delcarmen this season, the question is if they can find a Delcarmen, Okajima and if Rivera can stay elite. I would say yes, no and yes to those comparisons. Ohlendorf has a lot of upside if you saw him pitch last season, he just needs some, well, seasoning.
Santana could join the "other" New York team:
I hate to revisit this but the newest reports out of Minnesota have Johan Santana going to the Mets for an array of top prospects. As it is now, Carlos Gomez would anchor four Mets prospects (including Phil Humber) in a trade to Minnesota and the hangup, as usual , rests on the Twins wanting one more prospect, this time highly coverted Fernando Martinez. If you're a Mets fan or a prospect enthusiast you will know that including Martinez in the same deal with Gomez is like including Hughes and Kennedy or Buchholz and Ellsbury for New York and Boston fans-it's not happening. On the flip side, the Mets are more desperate than the Yankees and the Red Sox to acquire a top starter since they lost Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez is injury prone and they are coming off the biggest regular season collapse in major league history and not one of their starters could step up to fix it.
To nobody's surprise, Hank Steinbrenner was quoted as saying that he is "leaning away from acquiring Santana". This, to me, is the most interesting quote of all during the saga. This is the first time somebody other than the Red Sox has legitimately become the frontrunner for Johan and all of a sudden Hank himself has changed his stance from wanting the pitcher, but not willing to offer a certain package of prospects, to altogether not being interested. Could Hank and Theo have both been playing the same game? This entire time the stances have changed from "Theo wants Santana so he could have the Red Sox dominate for years to come" to "Theo wants to raise the price on the Yankees and doesn't want Santana" to "Hank doesn't want Santana now that the Mets are in the lead". Could they both have not wanted him and been checking to see who blinked first? It seems awfully strange that now that the Mets are in the lead both Theo and Hank have not only stayed quiet, but have not even revised their "final" offers. I think if this deal happens, everybody wins-or at least gets what they wanted. The Wilpon family has spoken and Omar Minaya has the green light to sign the extension, if the deal is accepted.
On the flip side, Bill Smith now has what he wants. He got the three top offers from the three top payrolls in baseball, presumably the only three teams with enough money, prospects and desire to sign Santana. At this point standing pat makes absolutely no sense. The Yankees are losing interest, the Sox seem bored and the Mets have made what seems to be their best and final offer, which in my opinion, is every bit as good as the Yankees and Red Sox offers (minus Ellsbury and minus Kennedy). They can all afford the extension, but Smith is starting to lose their attention, now is the time to make a decision and call it a day. No more asking for five prospects, no more trying to get two top five and three additional top 15 prospects out of the system for a 29-year-old pitcher who the other teams are going to have to tie up for seven years instead of five. This is what you're getting and if you don't like it, enjoy your two draft picks next season. Waiting to use Santana, who has a no-trade clause, until the trade deadline in the hopes somebody with a lot of money and a deep farm are going to be struggling enough to justify a block buster, is risky business and one that a rookie GM can't afford to have backfire. Pull the trigger.
In other news, I will be in Key Biscayne, Florida until Sunday, so I will catch up with everybody after the Giants game.
Football predictions:
Giants: 27 Cowboys: 24 (Owens is hurting with an upper ankle sprain, Romo is distraced, winning three times in one season and beating a team who is 8-0 against everybody else on the road TWICE just seems to smell of an upset)
Colts: 30 Chargers: 17 (Manning will not have a repeat performance of the matchup earlier this season)
Patriots: 30 Jaguars: 24 (weather pending)
Packers: 24 Seahawks: 20 (Hasselback loses in regulation, this time.)
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