Red Sox could withstand the loss of Varitek to injury or free agency

Maybe I shouldn't write this. Perhaps those of you who believed in the Curse of the Bambino and still swear by the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx will chastise me if the scenario I am about to describe actually happens. Regardless of the risks, I will continue with this post anyway.

It was reported today that New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada was once again placed on the disabled list with an injured shoulder.  He will have an MRI tomorrow and then decide whether or not to have season-ending surgery. This story led me to think about Jason Varitek. What if the beloved Red Sox captain gets injured and misses the rest of the season? Could the team withstand this loss? Would the starting rotation, which is one of the best in baseball, suddenly crumble?

If you asked me this question two years ago, I would have emphatically answered, "Yes!" Of course, I would not have to speculate. If you recall, Varitek missed more than a month with a torn meniscus in 2006, and the injury coincided with Boston's nosedive from first place to third place in the American League East. Varitek was undoubtedly missed. Doug Mirabelli was suddenly the starter, and the Red Sox signed Javier Lopez (the former Braves backstop, not the current sidewinding, left-handed reliever who is part of an atrocious Boston bullpen). By the time Varitek returned, Boston's post-season chances were gone.

That was then, this is now. Varitek's injury was a devastating blow in 2006, but the starting rotation that season included names like Jason Johnson, Kevin Jarvis and Kyle Snyder. There was no pitching depth, and that is the main reason why the Red Sox plummeted to third place.

This season, Varitek is struggling. Baserunners steal on him with relative ease. His bat is slow, as his .214 average indicates. It is rare when Varitek makes solid contact with the ball. He has struck out 74 times in 262 at-bats.

There is no question that Varitek is still one of the game's best at blocking balls, and he commands the respect of pitchers. Yet, unlike 2006, the Red Sox have viable options at Triple-A Pawtucket. Dusty Brown, who is 26 and was Boston's 35th round draft pick in 2000, is "an excellent defensive catcher with an exceptionally strong arm," according to SoxProspects.com. Like Varitek, Brown calls a good game. At the plate, he was a marginal hitter until last season, when he posted respectable numbers at Pawtucket (.268, nine home runs, 43 RBI in 254 at-bats). This year, Brown is batting .274 with nine home runs and 35 RBI in 201 at-bats.

Brown is not the lone prospect behind the plate at Pawtucket. He shares time with George Kottaras, who was once considered San Diego's catcher of the future when the Red Sox acquired him for David Wells in 2006. Kottaras, who is 25, is supposed to be an offensive-minded catcher with an average glove. His offensive numbers are not impressive. He does have 18 home runs and 52 RBI in 290 at-bats, but he is hitting .234 with 82 strikeouts.

If an injury befalls Varitek or Kevin Cash this year, Brown is the most likely to be summoned from Pawtucket. His bat is productive, and he is a solid defensive catcher. In the off-season, Varitek will likely be resigned, if he will agree to something like a two-year deal with a team option for a third. If Varitek does return, Boston will need more offensive production from its backup. Chances are, Brown or Kottaras will replace Cash and catch at least two games a week. Both have experience catching knuckleballer Charlie Zink, so handling Tim Wakefield will not be a problem.

Should Varitek miss a stretch of time this year, the Red Sox will not suffer. Cash is defensively adept, and he is actually no worse than Varitek at the plate. I believe that Brown would contribute, too. Theo Epstein might also look outside the organization to find help, as trade rumors have indicated as the lack of offensive production from Varitek and Cash continues.

As for the Yankees, they should have known better to sign an aging catcher to such as costly contract in the off-season. Unlike Varitek, though, Posada still swings a run-producing bat, so he could play first base or serve as the DH next season if his shoulder does not return to full health. Posada's health woes will negatively impact Varitek in contract negotiations this winter. Scott Boras has little leverage when his client has trouble throwing out baserunners and hovers slightly above the Mendoza line.

Make no mistake, Varitek is still valuable with his leadership and game calling skills, but losing him to injury or free agency would not be the dagger it would have been a few years ago.