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July 23, 2008

The second half has started, and it shows

Can you smell the playoffs? I know I can.

It's a weird phenomenon when your team is playing well, there is so much less to write about. The Yankees have opened up their toughest extended stretch of the season with five straight wins. And they weren't just victories, they have been impressive blowouts. New York has won three of these games by six runs or more, with the 8-2 final tonight being no exception. It's been against two teams with better records than their own as well.

All of a sudden the offense has been able to come through with the big hits (Abreu's 2-run homer after Rasner gave up a 2-1 lead tonight, anytime Cano bats, and whenever Damon is on base). The return of JD to the lineup has certainly stengthened the run production as he has been setting the table. Combine the second half inevitable tear of Cano and the Yankees can still put up runs, even against good pitching, with Posada and Matsui probably done for the season. If not for the depth of their offense, this would not be possible. Brett Gardner should also improve, as he is way too talented to be a sub .200 career hitter on the major league level. I do think the Yankees would benefit with one more impact bat, particularly in the outfield, but that is more a luxery than a necessity. The only need on this team is one more starter, a weakness currently masked by Sidney Ponson's ability to escape trouble every inning and benefit from tremendous run support, and Darrell Rasner's return to decent starts by going 5+ innings and giving up just two runs tonight.

By far the overwhelming strength of this team happens to be the rival Red Sox' biggest weakness. The bullpen. If you combined these two teams you would have a 120 win, 330 million dollar payroll team. Everybody in the Yankees bullpen is throwing well. That includes LaTroy Hawkins, who will likely be the next piece moved when Brian Bruney returns from a foot injury that has cost him the majority of the season. Adding a power arm like Bruney's to what I now consider the best bullpen in the league will only help the situation.

Edwar Ramirez has not given up a hit in over nine innings, ditto for Kyle Farnsworth. We're not talking runs at this point, we're talking hits. The success of the Yankees' bullpen is pretty obvious too. Farnsworth is in a walk year, of course he finally decided to listen to Dave Eisland about his mechanics, rhythm, and pitch selection. Farnsworth can now magically throw his fastballs for strikes on the corners and deliver a hard slider as opposed to the flat ones we saw in the middle of the plate for most of the year.

Ramirez and Veras have benefited from the future Yankees pitching coach, Mariano Rivera. Both have been mentored by the great closer all season and now have enough experience to translate it into their potential. Ramirez is using his fastball (his second best pitch), primarily, but to set up his unhittable change-up. As a result, hitters are off-balance and uncomfortable at the plate. Learning a cutter as a third pitch from the pitcher with the best one in the history of the game doesn't hurt either.

Veras has learned to throw strikes and as a result can throw his nasty splitter more effectively ahead in the count. He has the ability to be a seventh or eighth inning pitcher for years to come, as does David Robertson, another excelling young arm in the bullpen. Robertson has struck out 13 in 8.1 innings since his debut when he gave up an earned run. Since then, Robertson has given up just one other run and has shown the ability to get out of tough situations with a big, looping, curveball and a hard fastball. Between Veras' hard stuff, Edwar's change-up and Robertson's curve, hitters aren't even comfortable with the looks of the Yankees' relievers. That leaves Rivera and his one earned run in a perfect saves situation season and Dan Giese, who has an ERA under three and most of it came from his brief stint as a starter. With all the talented depth in the minor leagues (Mark Melancon, JB Cox, etc.) and what has already surfaced in the majors, the Yankees won't have to worry about bullpen arms for years to come. Just starters.

Which brings me to my next point; the Yankees need a starter. Chamberlain, Pettitte and Mussina give three distinctly different looks and have all had varying success this season. With Wang, New York would be ready for a World Series run. Unfortunately, Wang, Hughes, Kennedy, Matsui and Posada cannot really be trusted to contribute right now. Hughes probably won't throw until the first week of September, if at all, in the major leagues. Kennedy is rebuilding his confidence and his composure in the minors somewhere and the other three could be lost for the season due to injury. August will be a month of tough competition and though you can't argue with Ponson's record, you can't trust him either. It would be an easier pill to swallow if Rasner wasn't pitching right after him in the rotation. You cannot win a playoff series with that much emphasis on your reliable starters. While I believe Wang can make a playoff impact this season, the fact remains the Yankees have 60% of a solid staff, and they will need one more to win consistently as they are now unless the offense really takes off, which is possible.

With Tampa starting to look more and more human and Boston's bullpen being atrocious, the AL East is officially up for grabs. The Yankees can win on the road and are starting to establish themselves at home with this current homestand. Mix that with their bullpen and waking giant of an offense and the team has the potential to leave everybody else in the division behind. As it is, they are only 3.5 games out of first place.

I'd rather be looking for a back-end starter with an offense that statistically is due to explode along with a solid bullpen, than a setup man and a middle reliever or wondering when my starters will tire out or my statistically due to fail relievers are going to come back to earth. If you're a Yankees fan, life is good right now. Until your next loss.

A series with the Red Sox featuring Chamberlain and Pettitte against Beckett, Wakefield and Lester at Fenway will be interesting. Expect to lose 2 out of 3 but don't rule out winning the series. Perhaps the Yankees can steal a game off Boston's bullpen and win one with one of their three best pitchers. Lester against Rasner or Ponson is simply not appealing.

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