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August 16, 2008

Rating the Red Sox top outfield prospects

The deadline to sign 2008 draft picks has now passed, and the Boston Red Sox are stocked with a new class of minor leaguers. On deadline day, which was Friday, the Red Sox inked highly regarded outfield prospects Ryan Westmoreland and Peter Hissey.

Westmoreland was a fifth round selection out of Portsmouth, R.I., who had committed to Vanderbilt. Hissey was a fourth round pick out of Unionville, Pa. who had committed to the University of Virginia. Both players would have been selected higher if teams weren't concerned about signability due to their college commitments.

Now that the Red Sox minor league rosters have new faces, and some familiar names are climbing up the organizational ladder, I think this is an ideal time for an in-depth look at the best Red Sox prospects at each position. Today's post will detail the organization's top 10 outfielders. The next week's lineup will look like this:

  • Sunday - Middle infielders
  • Monday - Corner infielders
  • Tuesday - Catchers
  • Wednesday - Starting pitchers
  • Thursday - Relief pitchers

Now that Jacoby Ellsbury has graduated to Boston, David Murphy is in Texas and Brandon Moss is with Pittsburgh, the Sox don't have a top outfield prospect at Triple-A Pawtucket. The stable of Red Sox outfield prospects is deep from Single-A Greenville up to Double-A Portland. It is promising at the Gulf Coast League level and at short-season Lowell, though it is difficult to tell if someone is a bonafide Major League prospect until he thrives at Greenville and Lancaster.

That said, here are my top 10 outfield prospects in the Red Sox minor league system:

  1. Josh Reddick - The 21-year-old Reddick had successful stints at Greenville and advanced Single-A Lancaster before receiving a promotion to Double-A Portland, where he is starting to sting the ball after a slow start. A 17th round pick in 2006 out of Middle Georgia College, Reddick hits from the left side and proficiently plays all three outfield positions, though right field is his strongest spot. He hits for power and average, and is a run producer, but the Red Sox would like him to show more discipline at the plate. Reddick is one of those prospects like Jacoby Ellsbury. It's not a matter of when he will reach the big league; it's just a question of whether he will be a superstar, or a solid every day player. If Reddick continues to impress, he could lead the Sox to trade J.D. Drew before his contract expires after the 2011 season.
  2. Ryan Kalish - If you like Ellsbury, you will enjoy watching Kalish patrol the outfield. The 20-year-old Kalish grew up in New Jersey as a Red Sox fan. He has tremendous speed, has a strong arm, hits for average and has power potential. His numbers have not been eye-popping this year - he hit .281 with three home runs, 32 RBI, a .376 on-base percentage and a .736 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) at Greenville before his recent promotion to Lancaster - but he had wrist surgery last season, so chances are his power numbers will improve next year. Like many of Boston's top outfield prospects, Kalish is a left-handed hitter.
  3. Che-Hsuan Lin - Talk about someone who has rapidly emerged as a top prospect, the 19-year-old Lin made a name for himself when he was awarded with Futures Game MVP honors this summer. Currently, he is playing for his native Taiwan in the Olympics. Lin is a contact hitter with superb speed and a rocket arm. He has 33 stolen bases for Single-A Greenville. With Ellsbury, Kalish and Lin, the Sox definitely do not have a shortage of fleet-footed outfielders.
  4. Chris Carter - Unlike the top three prospects, Carter is not fast nor is he an asset in the outfield. In fact, the soon-to-be 26-year-old lefty is marginal at best as an outfielder and a first baseman, but he can sure hit. This is Carter's third full season at Triple-A. In 2006, he had 19 home runs, 97 RBI and a .301 average at Tucson in the Diamondbacks organization. Last season, he collected 19 home runs and 88 RBI with a .317 average at Tucson and Pawtucket. If you recall, the Sox acquired Carter from Arizona in a three-team deal that sent Wily Mo Pena to Washington. This year, Carter has 24 home runs, 78 RBI and a .293 average for the Paw Sox. He was 2-for-3 in a brief stint with the Red Sox. Right now, Carter is on the disabled list with a strained oblique. He could rejoin the Red Sox sometime in September if his oblique cooperates. Should Sean Casey not return to Boston next year, Carter could make the team out of spring training as a backup first baseman and corner outfielder. Or, he could serve as trade bait because there is no doubt he is Major League ready.
  5. Bubba Bell - Many baseball experts look at guys like the 25-year-old Bell and say, "He projects to be a fourth outfielder on the Major League level." My response is, "And? Doesn't every Major League team need a fourth outfielder?" You will have a hard time not rooting for Billy Wayne Bell, who was a 35th round pick out of Nicholls State in 2005. His profile on SoxProspects.com aptly describes him with, "All five tools are above average, but none are spectacular." Bell is proficient in the field and at the plate, and Red Sox fans will love his Dirt Dog-esque demeanor. He was hitting .285 with 13 home runs and 49 RBI at Portland before landing on the disabled list  with a stress fracture in his left leg. He could start next season at Pawtucket and serve as outfield insurance for the Red Sox.
  6. Mitch Dening - The soon-to-be 21-year-old Australian import has not received as much press as other prospects, like 2006 first round pick Jason Place, but he has caught the attention of Red Sox officials this season. Like Bell, Dening is proficient but not spectacular, and you won't see him loafing down the first base line. In other words, he hustles. Dening was impressive in the Gulf Coast League last year and is hitting .321 with a .383 OBP and an .867 OPS at short-season Lowell in 2008. Prospects like Bell, Dening and Jeff Corsaletti (who is not in my top 10, but has reached Pawtucket) are among my favorites because they are Dirt Dawg types who would accept and thrive in a fourth outfielder's role at the Major League level.
  7. Zach Daeges - Like Chris Carter, Daeges can rake, but he is defensively challenged. A sixth round pick out of Creighton in 2006, the 24-year-old Daeges sees a bulk of time in right field and at DH since his defensive skills are below average. At the plate, he is dangerous. Last year, he played a full season at Lancaster, where he tallied 21 home runs, 113 RBI and a .330 average. Daeges has shown this season that he can also produce outside of the hitting-friendly California League. At Portland, he has a .318 average and a .420 OBP, though his power numbers are down (five home runs and 53 RBI). Deages' ticket to the big leagues is likely as a DH.
  8. Ryan Westmoreland - I know, I know. Westmoreland was just signed out of high school, and he has yet to play in a professional baseball game. However, this New England standout has the potential to be a five-tool player, and he could rapidly ascend through the Red Sox system. The Sox especially savor his plate discipline, and the fact he can hit for power and average, steal bases and effectively patrol the outfield. What's not to like?
  9. Peter Hissey - The Red Sox are ecstatic that Westmoreland and Hissey chose professional baseball over college. If both prospects had not committed to Vanderbilt and Virginia respectively, they would have been selected much higher in the draft. Hissey is a combination of Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish. It will be interesting to see who develops faster - Westmoreland or Hissey.
  10. Luis Sumoza - A highly touted international free agent signed out of Venezuela by the Red Sox in 2004, Sumoza's skills are still raw, but he is starting to show promise. At Lowell, he is hitting .273 and has seven home runs and 30 RBI in 165 at-bats, but he also has struck out 50 times. Sumoza is just 20, and he has time to develop. With his five tool potential, it is worthwhile to monitor his progress.

Those of you who follow the Red Sox minor league system may not understand why I have Bell and Dening rated higher than Westmoreland and Hissey, and wonder why my list does not include Jason Place and David Mailman. Though I believe that Westmoreland and Hissey have higher ceilings than Bell, Dening and even Daeges and Carter, I can't justify placing them at the top of the list until they prove themselves at the GCL level and at Lowell, and show promise at Greenville. As for Place and Mailman, I just don't think they are among the 10 best outfield prospects in the Sox system.

So what's your take on this list? Do you disagree with any of the rankings? If so, let me know your top 10 list. Regardless of where you rank them, with players like Reddick, Kalish, Lin, Westmoreland and Hissey in the system, Boston's outfield cupboard is well-stocked.

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