Highlighted by Philadelphia's rally against Derek Lowe and a victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the National League Championship Series started last night. This evening, the World Series begins. OK, technically it is the American League Championship Series, but let's be serious - does anyone actually believe that the Phillies or Dodgers will pose a threat to the Red Sox or Rays in THE World Series?
There was a time when the American League was the inferior league in Major League Baseball. That was back in the 1970s, when Cincinnati Reds won back-to-back crowns in 1975 and 1976, and the Pittsburgh Pirates won it all in 1971 and 1979. Arguably, the NL was more competitive from top to bottom then compared to the AL. Still,in that decade, the Oakland A's won three consecutive titles from 1972-1974 and the Yankees won two in a row in 1977 and 1978. Interestingly, since the NL captured four straight World Series titles from 1979-1982 (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and St. Louis), the senior circuit has not won the Fall Classic in back-to-back seasons.
Whether I am right about which league had more talented teams in the 70s, 80s and 90s is a subject for debate. However, this decade, there is no doubt that the AL is dramatically deeper and better. Just look at the history of interleague play. Take a glance at who has won the World Series since 2000. Yes, I realize that Arizona beat the Yankees in 2001 (much to my delight), Florida topped the Yankees in 2003 (much to my delight again) and Detroit surprised St. Louis in 2006. All three of those Fall Classic wins were considered upsets. A better indication of where the balance of power stands is told by the fact that five of the last 10 World Series were sweeps - each one accomplished by an AL team (two for the Yankees, two for the Red Sox and one for the White Sox).
In 2004, some naysayers said that the Red Sox would be too mentally and physically drained after executing the Yankees. They were quieted when Boston ended 86 years of disappointment with a four-game sweep of the Cardinals. Remember last October, when the Rockies continued their September surge with a dominating performance in the ALDS and ALCS? They were supposed to give the Red Sox a stringent test. Instead, it was an open-book exam, and the Rockies pointed directly to the answers.
This year, talking heads on Fox will hype up the World Series by encouraging you to believe that a rotation headed by Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, or an offense guided by Manny Ramirez and his cast of merry men, will be formidable enough to dethrone the Red Sox or create a sour ending to Tampa Bay's fairy tale season. Sorry. That's not gonna happen.
If baseball fans have learned anything from interleague play, it is this - the most average AL teams can beat even the best NL teams whether the games feature the DH at AL ballparks or pitchers batting at NL stadiums. Some baseball enthusiasts think that the AL's current reign is cyclical. They insist that the NL will rise again and show more talent and depth than the junior circuit. I'm not a believer in that theory.
Even without steroids and HGH, today's hitters are stronger than ever, and they are blessed with swifter bat speed than their brethren from 20 years ago. Unfortunately for the NL, only eight viable hitters can step to the plate. Sure, there are exceptions like Carlos Zambrano and Micah Owings (who hits better than he pitches), but few people want to see a game where a pitcher bats. Most NL lineups include six decent hitters, a marginal hitter at No. 7, a light-hitting position player in the No. 8 spot and then the pitcher. Most AL lineups have at least seven or eight solid hitters, and even a weak-hitting DH or position player is much more productive than a pitcher at the plate.
You can even make the argument that pitching is better in the AL. General managers of most contending AL Teams (with the exception of Brian Cashman) recognize that you must have a strong rotation to seriously compete for a World Series title. AL pitchers are accustomed to maneuvering through stocked lineups from top to bottom in their league, so often they find interleague play and the World Series appealing because of the weaker NL lineups. Josh Beckett's 4.03 ERA this year in an injury-plagued season is more impressive than, for example, Roy Oswalt's 17 victories and 3.54 ERA. Cliff Lee's 22 wins and 2.54 ERA for the woeful Indians is a greater accomplishment than Johan Santana's 2.53 ERA for the Mets. Santana, by the way, posted a 3.33 ERA in 2007, his last in the AL.
Unless the NL adopts the DH, don't expect the balance of power to shift. AL lineups are just too deep, and the starting rotations that are brought in to neutralize these lineups are more formidable than their NL counterparts. Sure, there will still be the occasional World Series upset. You can expect the unexpected in October. However, it is unlikely that the World Series will be anything other than a four or five-game diversion after the most competitive post-season series is played - the ALCS.
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