What's With all the Confusion in Yankees' Universe? (Part 3)

Andy Pettitte's arm is about as useful as Stonewall Jackson's.

There was this guy on the Yankees, he didn't throw all that hard, he's a veteran, he's a smart pitcher, eats innings, stays healthy, and he was terrible in 2007. I'm trying to remember his name, He had one more year on his contract after posting a 5+ ERA and getting taken out of the rotation late in the season because he was so ineffective. Everybody, including myself, thought he was finished despite the fact he wasn't even 40 years old yet. What was his name again? Ohhhhh, right, it was Mike Mussina and he won 20 games last year. Now Yankees fans (myself included) hope Mussina avoids retirement and comes back for at least one more season to fill out our rotation.

What's the point of capitalizing on my momentary senility? Andy Pettitte is younger than Mike Mussina. Andy Pettitte is not a power pitcher, he's coming off of the worst offseason and most distractions in his career, he's a lefty and his arm has no structural damage. Is it so farfetched to assume Pettitte can do HALF of what Mussina did this year? Mussina learned how to pitch like an ace a year after he was written off as nothing but a long reliever. If Pettitte can make adjustments in an offseason where he won't have to discuss former steroid use, is it so far-fetched to assume he can throw up a mid 4 ERA? And if that's the case is it so far-fetched to expect him to throw like a four starter? I don't think that's asking much, and I think the only people who can't see that happening are the same people who still doubted Mike Mussina by the time August rolled around. You know what the sad thing is? Pettitte just had the worst season, and second half of a season in his career, and still finished with 204 innings under his belt.

Without Tex in the mix, the Yankees offense will keep us out of the playoffs again.

I really love the fans who say the Yankees' offense cost us the season last year. It's true, they didn't score 950 runs, nor did they slug 220 HR's, or even put up 20 runs in a game. Yet, somehow, they still managed to be among the leaders in On Base Percentage, and had half their lineup hit .300. You know what the Yankees lead the world in offensively? Flukes.

Consider this for a second: Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter each missed almost a month of the season. That's your two and four hitters. While Jason Giambi gave more than we expected, and Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu probably broke about even, we saw a regression from our centerfielder, and a major one from our second baseman, neither of whom are out of their mid 20's yet. Robinson Cano hit about .30 points lower than you could have expected and the entire team hit a supernaturally low .261 with runners in scoring position despite a .271 team batting average. A-Rod and Giambi, the middle of the order, were particularly bad. They were .282 with no outs and struck out more often with more outs in the inning. As a unit, the club clubbed .206 with two strikes, .268 with two ours and RISP, and despite a .265 average in their first at bats, they were .269 in their third. I think it's fair to assume the team improves with the same players in the same conditions, naturally, just by pure law of averages.

If that's not enough, you're getting a full year of Hideki Matsui as a DH, Nich Swisher's On Base Percentage, Jorge Posada replacing a position which had the least production in the league this side of Jason Varitek, and A-Rod will presumably stay healthy since he did every other year of his career, not to mention it's an odd number year for him. I assume Derek Jeter doesn't get hit in the hand and recover while in the lineup for two months, grounding into countless double plays along the way, and the addition of a new dimension in Brett Gardner, along with a full year of Xavier Nady can't hurt either. Nady and Swisher, I believe, can all but match what Giambi and Abreu would have given them this season, while Damon, Gardner and Jeter can match their production from last season (in Gardner's case, what came out of the centerfield position), and Posada, Cano and A-Rod are surely do for improvements. So no, Tex isn't a necessity, and yes, the Yankees' offense should be just fine, even if they don't obtain another bat. Now they just need a bench past Jose Molina.

CC Sabathia will cry if he has to pitch in the AL East:

CC Sabathia's numbers as part of the Cleveland Indians:

2001-2007: 34 starts, 15-9 222 IP, 206 H, 70BB, 186 K, 3.66 ERA.

His last three years before 2008:

2005: 31 starts, 15-10, 196.2 IP, 185 H, 62BB, 161K, 3.22 ERA

2006: 28 starts, 12-11, 192.2IP, 182H, 44BB, 172K, 3.21 ERA

2007: 34 starts, 19-7, 241 IP, 238 H, 37BB, 209 K, 2.70 ERA.

2008 is kind of a tough year to decipher, he started off slowly, picked up steam and then left for the NL where he posted a 1.65 ERA and other robotic numbers, so it's impossible to gauge how he would have done with a full year in the AL. Needless to say, he will be 28 in the middle of next season and it's pretty clear he reached success in 2005 and became a power pitcher in 2007. The one notable stat about 2008 is he combined for 253 innings, which has raised a lot of red flags. Just for kicks, let's look at the only better lefty in the game today (sorry Jon Lester, but one season isn't going to give you that title.)

Johan Santana's numbers the last three years before 2008: (I exclude 2008 because he's in the NL now)

2005: 33 starts, 16-7, 231.2 IP, 180 H, 45BB, 238 K, 2.87 ERA

2006: 34 starts, 19-6, 233.3IP, 186 H, 47BB, 245 K, 2.77 ERA

2007: 33 starts, 15-13, 219 IP, 183 H,  52BB, 235K, 3.33 ERA

2008, as I said, was spent in the NL, which at this point, is widely considered the easier to pitch league, so just like I excluded Sabathia's numbers, I'm excluding Johan's, but including the fact he pitched 234.3 innings. Was there any doubt to the Mets packaging prospects in exchange for Johan's services through his prime years? (he will be 30 by the start of the 2009 regular season) Johan regressed a little in 2007 but a lot of that can be blamed on a bad team and an odd amount of homeruns given up, either way Sabathia is the same age now that Johan was after 2007 and their numbers aren't that terribly off the mark from one another, with the clear strikeout edge to Santana. Is it such a disaster to go after Sabathia for just money and not prospects, and build a pitching staff around him? Would you do it if your team can afford it? Of course you would, so any conjecture that the Yankees are making a mistake here is just jealousy, denile, or both.

Oh and guess what, Sabathia is listed at 250 lbs, so even if you want to say he's around 280, he's also 6'7" with flawless mechanics! Bartolo Colon is listed at the same weight and eight inches shorter, so anybody who could possibly try to draw the parallels because they saw three years of success out of Colon and then injury problems at the age of 31 (three years from now in Sabathia's world, which would already be half his proposed contract), are out of their minds. Sabathia is eight inches taller than Colon and probably the same weight. Let me repeat that,

CC SABATHIA IS EIGHT INCHES TALLER THAN BARTOLO COLON AND THE SAME PROPOSED WEIGHT. This is not the same situation, in fact, it's not even close. I guess Lebron James is facing injury problems because he's listed at 250 LBS and is 6'8", just one inch taller than Sabathia.

Newsflash: CC Sabathia is an enormous human being. Even if he's clearly more than 250.

Breaking News:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3715160

Maybe it's not so breaking, but HAL Steinbrenner has officially been named the new owner of the Yankees. Not Hank, but Hal. He will oversee all baseball operations.

That's the finance guy in case you weren't clued in.

This couldn't be more perfect timing for me while I'm on my soapbox. Today marks the last time any "Hank will ruin the Yankees" jokes can be made. You are officially wrong if you make jokes about it anymore.

Breaking News Part 2:

Mike Mussina has officially announced his retirement. Bring on Andy Pettitte!