Who among the Red Sox will be praised at baseball Thanksgiving or derided during baseball Festivus in 2009?

On the calendar, the new year officially begins when the clock strikes midnight this evening. For me, though, 2009 will not debut until that day in February when Red Sox pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Speaking of the new year, instead of writing resolutions in a baseball column, I think it would be more appropriate to type my Red Sox-related expectations for the upcoming season.

For classification's sake, I will write each expectation and accompany it with a prediction in the categories of Thanksgiving and Festivus (that beloved Seinfeld holiday created by Frank Costanza that involves the airing of grievances about those who have disappointed you). Players placed in the baseball Thanksgiving category will have obviously met expectations while those dumped into the baseball Festivus classification will have stopped short (yes, another Seinfeld reference).

Here is my list of expectations for the 2009 Red Sox:

1. Josh Beckett will return to 2007 form. I'm not a gambling man, but if I was, I would be willing to wager a substantial sum on this one. Beckett was never fully healthy in 2008. I think it was due to a lack of proper off-season conditioning. The ace will not make that mistake for the 2009 season. Expect Beckett to have a dominant year and be THE premiere starter in the American League. Beckett's season will be remembered during baseball Thanksgiving.
2. Jon Lester will win 18-20 games. Lester emerged as not only one of the top young left-handers in the game, but one of the top starters in the American League in 2008. He is poised beyond his years. The Red Sox are fortunate since they have two starters who are aces - and when I say "aces" I mean pitchers you want on the mound in a key game during the regular season and in October. Lester will be mentioned in the same breath with Beckett at baseball Thanksgiving.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka will follow Jon Lester's example from 2008 and become more economical with his pitches. Man, would it be nice to watch a Dice-K start without feeling mentally drained by the fourth inning. That is unlikely to happen. Though it is inaccurate to write that Matsuzaka cannot complete six innings - 16 of his 29 starts last season were at least six full frames, and nine of those lasted seven or more innings - it is correct to say that does not consistently pitch deep into games. Regardless, you can't argue that Matsuzaka is a winner. He was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008, and he allowed just 128 hits in 167.2 innings, which is a remarkable stat. Put Dice-K in the baseball Festivus category for the heartburn he will cause, but add him to the baseball Thanksgiving classification for another season that sees the Red Sox win most times Matsuzaka steps onto the mound.
4. David Ortiz will post 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a .290 batting average. Big Papi turned 33 in November. For a DH, that is far from the rocking chair. Even with a severely injured wrist, he belted 23 home runs and knocked in 89 in 416 at-bats in 2008. I think 30-plus dingers, 100-plus RBI and at least a .290 average is a probable line for Ortiz in 2009. This will place Big Papi in the baseball Thanksgiving category.
5. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis will match their 2008 offensive numbers. It would be unfair to expect Pedroia to hit over .320 every season (he batted .326 in 2008), and it is unrealistic to think he will deserve MVP consideration every year, yet there is no reason to doubt that the future Red Sox captain will consistently hit .300, rip 15-20 dingers and knock in 75-80 runs. I believe that Youkilis has the ability to consistently hit 25 home runs, drive in 100 runs and hit .300, so his numbers could be a little down from 2008, but they will be in the same vicinity. If you're set on Pedroia duplicating last season's batting average, you can place him in the baseball Festivus category. However, Pedroia and Youkilis can be counted upon to hit for average, produce runs and provide leadership by example, which is why you will laud them at your baseball Thanksgiving.
6. Boston's bullpen will be a strength in 2009. If the Red Sox had a reliable bullpen last season, Tim Wakefield would have fared much better than 10-11, Dice-K would have won 20 games and Lester would have had a chance for 20. Aside from Jonathan Papelbon, and the innings that Justin Masterson provided, Red Sox relievers were that shaky. It will be a different story in 2009 because of Papelbon as the closer; and Hideki Okajima, Masterson and newcomer Ramon Ramirez in key set-up roles. This will allow Terry Francona to use Manny Delcarmen in the sixth and/or seventh, and Javier Lopez as a situational reliever.  If Masterson is kept in the bullpen and not inserted into the rotation, there will only be one opening. David Aardsma (who is solid when healthy), Wes Littleton (who was acquired from Texas) and promising Rule V draft pick Miguel Gonzalez are among the candidates. Daniel Bard could work his way to Boston at some point in 2009 if he is not traded before opening day. I am confident that the bullpen will be recognized at baseball Thanksgiving, The pen will determine if Boston wins it all, or falls short like 2008.
7. J.D. Drew will avoid the disabled list in 2009. This one will be the keynote grievance at the baseball Festivus. I do think Drew will produce runs from the No. 6 or No. 7 spot in the order, and you can count on him to deliver in October, but since he is so fragile, Theo Epstein needs to bring in a fourth outfielder who can play solid defense and help with the bat for an extended period, when needed. And, believe me, that fourth outfielder will be needed. Oh, will he be needed.

There are more expectations I could add - such as whether Mike Lowell will recover from hip surgery and have a productive 2009 season (I think he will), will Clay Buchholz prove himself at the major league level (yes), can Brad Penny give the Red Sox 160 or more innings (I think 125-140 is more realistic) and will Tim Wakefield record 175 or more frames (I don't see why not) - but seven is my lucky number, so I'm stopping there.

It is difficult to make accurate projections in baseball. We can debate whether traditional scouting or sabermetrics is a more reliable form of determining how a player will perform, but the bottom line is that some players will exceed expectations, some will flop and others will remain consistent.

Now that Mark Teixeira is a Yankee, it appears that Epstein may still not be content with Boston's lineup. This is evident with the multiple media reports that the Red Sox approached the Marlins about Hanley Ramirez. Maybe Epstein has a blockbuster up his sleeve, but if the Sox open the 2009 season with its current starters (of course, there is that catching situation to address), they will be just fine, even if nobody exceeds expectations.

Jacoby Ellsbury will be a tablesetter in the leadoff spot. Pedroia will get key hits and knock in runs. Ortiz (at No. 3) and Jason Bay (at either No. 5 or 6) can be counted upon for at least 30 homers and 100 RBI. J.D. Drew is a guy who can give the Sox 20 home runs, 80 RBI and a .280 average. Youkilis can approach and even match Ortiz and Bay in run production while hitting over .300. And, though he is an unknown factor, Jed Lowrie has the ability to hit .280 with 8-10 home runs and 70-75 RBI over a full season from the No. 8 or No. 9 spot. The catcher's spot in the order will be more productive with someone like Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Jason Varitek would be the lone Achilles heel at the plate.

Simply put, from top to bottom, Boston's lineup as it is currently composed is not spectacular, but it will still be among the major league leaders in runs, batting average and OPS. Since the Red Sox rotation is so deep and talented, the bullpen is improved and the defense is superb, the offensive production will be enough to seriously contend for another World Series title.

Most importantly, Boston has a well-balanced team - a roster featuring guys who know how to play the game the way it is meant to be played. That is a cliche, I know, but sometimes cliches are appropriate and accurate. This cliche is why I like Boston's chances in 2009.