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« Brad Penny is a low-risk, high reward signing for Red Sox | Main | MLB Network debut will remind Yankees fans what it's like to see their team in the World Series »

December 29, 2008

Yankees are idle again on the hot stove front, NFL playoffs are set

Welcome to the Hot Stove League, Boston, it's nice to have you. I still have some outlandish yet realistic ideas of trading Matsui, signing Manny and trading for Figgins or signing him next year and moving Jeter to left concepts, but for now I'll be happy knowing the Yankees took drastic measures to get over the hump. This was the first week I truly started to feel Baseball withdrawel, and hopefully the MLB Network will help me out. Seriously though, enough talk, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett can be argued forever, and Penny and Bard are non-signings in all likelihood, so I'm ready for some actual games.

Quick note on the Sox deals: I doubt Bard is the starter, but he did hit well in a canyon against lefties, so in a platoon or as a backup who starts verse lefties and doesn't catch Wakefield, he could be effective. As for Penny, five million is a drop in the bucket for a guy who put up the numbers he did (even if it was in the NL in the worst hitting division in a pitcher's ballpark) in 2007. Penny is the 2008 Bartolo Colon with the same health risks, but it certainly beats a David Pauley taking his place. A Mark Kotsay and some more role players and the Sox are good for battle, whether it's good enough or not remains to be seen.

As for the Yankees, we know their deal. Ideally I'd like one more pitcher if for nothing else than to play it safe, but nevertheless a year of Hughes being older, Joba being a starter and Burnett's new health regimen sure beats expecting Kennedy Hughes and Chamberlain to stay healthy AND produce simultaneously, and then having Ponson, Pavano, Rasner, Karstens and Igawa as insurance policies. The Yankees have more than enough pieces to probably cover all pitching situations except both Sabathia and Wang missing long periods of time, even then who knows how much improvement Chamberlain and Hughes are capable of, certainly more than last season, especially in Hughes' case.

As for Football, it's helping me cope too. This was a fantastic day in the NFL. I saw the Cowboys get embarassed, destroyed and cancelled and their whole circus, drama, girly fest will go with them. The best part is I feared them (putting it together at the Meadowlands on January 11th) far more than the Eagles, who barely squeaked by beating Hixon in his "all alone" role when it was new, and an unhealthy Jacobs who will be on three weeks rest by the time the two meet again. Those two factors alone will be reason for concern to fear the Giants' offense, and the defense will be ready to play even without Sam Madison, who was their 3rd or 4th best Cornerback.

The Eagles are clicking, but in this case I think the Giants' rest will outweigh the Eagles' momentum, and I'll take a Coughlin and coordinators' approach over Andy Reid any day of the week, including Sunday.

I bring up that matchup because in my mind, it's a guarantee. Why? Let's review all the matchups:

Eagles at Vikings: The Vikings almost lost to the entire second string of the Giants. While the Giants are the deepest team in the NFC, it's still telling that a team fighting for their playoff lives with arguably the most explosive player on either side, at home on the final day of the season needed a field goal with no time left to win. The Vikings are weak, and the Eagles have had the tougher schedule. I have no doubt Philly wins on the road, but asking them to do it twice in a row against a rested team who split with them in the regular season is asking a lot. They simply aren't the same team away from home.

Falcons at Cardinals: I'm much too lazy to look it up, or care all that much since this isn't Baseball, but I'm fairly certain this is the first time all five and six seeds will play division round games. There's no chance the Falcons don't throttle the Cards in Arizona. None. They may have barely beaten the Rams, but the Cards are shot, they didn't even build momentum today, they have an old quarterback (older ones seem to get worse more easily late in the season), a lack of a running game, and no defense. No defense and no running game equals no winning and the Falcons are my dark horse.

The Rest of the NFC:

I can't see a rematch of Carolina and New York as a championship game, that's too "by the script". I'm thinking Atlanta upsets Carolina on the road and becomes the stud pick to make the Superbowl as a five seed with a rookie behind center. I more consider them like the 2006 Saints, an excellent story, going from a bad to a good situation way ahead of time with inspiring football, and then getting smacked in the mouth right before the Superbowl. This will be the first time in my life I have faith in the Giants in must-win games, so rightfully you should all understand if this backfires on me and I'm found two weeks later in the fetal position with a Tito Wooten jersey on.

In the AFC, the Dolphins immediately became my favorite by turning in a real-life Hollywood movie script. Seriously, this is if Angels in the Outfield came to life, minus the Angels and Chili Dogs, and replacing that with Tony Sparano and Chad Pennington. It should already be in the works with Hollywood and the 'Fins don't even have to win the Superbowl. They just went from 1-15 and arguably the worst team ever to not only having last year not matter because of the Lions now, but also going 11-5, making up a 15 game disadvantage to edge the Patriots along the way, winning 11 games and being set up as the most exciting offense for the future with all their trickery and formations.

I can tell you firsthand South Florida loves this, the Dolphins are really the only team who fans adore regardless of their success, so it's nice to see a loyal fanbase get their due, especially when it involves Pennington beating an overrated Hall of Fame hired gun on his own turf with the season on the line. I know I wrote about Favre being among the best ever last year right around this time, but upon further review the guy almost single handedly ruined his legacy today. Just retire. Please. Go, you're done, finished, you're not a good decision maker and you don't have the arm to make up for it anymore.

The Patriots had an enviable run without Brady, who by the way might miss next season too with surgery complications. Their season isn't so much Hollywood as it is the same exact script already created by ESPN during the one season run of their hit show, Playmakers. That show was shut down by the NFL. The Patriots have been shut out of the playoffs (just like the fictional team in the show). They really showed heart and some depth to come this close, and yet miss the playoffs one year after they won their first 18 games.

Honestly, I would tip my hat to this team except, oh wait, what's that? The Patriots play in New England? Boston fans? The same fans who say injuries don't count and can't be made as excuses? Oh, well way to choke away the season New England, boohoo you lost some key players, you should have had the depth and foresight to adjust, you should have beaten the Dolphins that first time you played, after all every game counts, even in the beginning of the season, Losing essential players down the strtetch doesn't matter, my Giants had injuries, they're 12-4 and the best in the conference, maybe even in Football. The Patriots don't play like a team, they're a bunch of primadonnas looking to earn their paycheck, how do you lose a division to the Dolphins? They are sort of like the Tampa Bay Rays, just terrible. What's that? You won three rings recently? You HAD a dynasty and now it's long gone? Well we play in the present and presently your season is over becaused you couldn't compensate. Season failure. Sound familiar? Good. Let it sink in nice and slowly Pats fans, you have now become Yankees fans.

In all seriousness, how similar are the two franchises? Just think about all they have in common, it really is crazy, not to mention Bill Belichick and Brady are both Yankees fans.

Anyway, Here's your AFC matchups:

Ravens at Dolphins:

It's certainly poetic justice that the Dolphins play the one team they beat last year, but that won't help their chances this season. After seeing clueless Eli march through the playoffs with a superior running game which didn't perform as well as people think, I don't have much stock in QB's making a difference unless they are Peyton caliber. Therefore, I can't hold it against the Ravens that they have Joe Flacco when they are playing a team simply not as talented as they are, especially on defense. Flacco will take care of the football, as will Matt Ryan, in fact the only QB's who I see as a burden on their team are Kerry Collins and Kurt Warner because one is old with a bad playoff history and the other only plays in warm weather and is also old. Big Ben is a liability if he's hurt by then too, but I don't see that happening.

Anyway, back to my point, the Ravens defense is going to slaughter all this trickery because they won't allow it to develop, and on paper this isn't a matchup. The Dolphins have beaten nobody but New England and now a pathetic Jets team this season, and the Ravens went toe-to-toe with the Eagles, beat Dallas in a game they had to win and beat New England in their stride. Then again, don't doubt the power of a good Cinderella story. Either way, I'm going with logic and taking the Ravens.

Colts at Chargers:

Peyton Manning cannot be stopped and after seeing Cutler break 20 against the Chargers, I have no doubt Manning and the Colts score at least 40. This is going to be like those old Colts/Broncos wildcard games where Indianapolis just doesn't need to punt. Manning is hot, but then again the Chargers have won four games in a row, but that was to finish 8-8.

Let it be known right now I am not an advocate of the Colts as a dark horse, I think the Ravens have a much better chance. The Colts have no running game and against solid teams a suspect defense, but they certainly have their swagger back and as I stated before, Peyton is the only QB who can literally change a game by himself. I think the Colts pull this one out in a barnburner.

Ravens at Titans:

I'm not a Kerry Collins fan, and I don't believe in the Titans. Beating the Steelers was impressive, I'll give them that, but I've seen this team fall flat on its face while still being relatively healthy and I just don't see much depth there. I will always remember what the Ravens did to Collins in the Superbowl (which is another nice little storyline for the Ravens throughout the postseason) so I will not trust the man, even if he has found peace and is on a fundamental team or whatever.

Point is, this Titans team has played in close games all year, and they've pulled them out. In playoff times, I just don't see Tennessee defending their one seed, they don't seem built to do so and as I said, the NFL never follows the script and the Ravens are my dark horse, I'll take Baltimores D wearing down the Titans and Flacco and Mcgahee/Mc'Lain/Rice finishing them off.I also don't know if a team like the Titans, who played ugly today and most of the end of the season, will benefit from a bye week. Boom, a six seed in the championship game for a second year in a row.

Colts at Steelers:

A lot of this hinges on Ben Roethlisberger being healthy with that concussion he suffered today, but I'm going to operate under the assumption that he is. Peyton Manning always struggled against a team who can reach him in big spots, with suffocating defense in hostile atmospheres and bad climates. Guess what? This Steelers D has the capability of turning a good Colts' O line into Swiss cheese. The Colts' defense can be scored upon and in Pittsburgh in late January, with that stadium being as crappy as it is, and a hunch of wind, I can completely see the running games being the difference here. Peyton Manning will not light up Pittsburgh with his arm, it simply won't happen, not in their house, not on that field and not in that atmosphere, even if the Colts have won 11 in a row by then.

This game is a rematch of my two usual favorite AFC teams. I love Peyton Manning, but my liking of the Colts goes back to Jim Harbaugh and his miracle 13-3 Colts who played those Steelers in the AFC championship game a decade ago. The game was decided when the Steelers, up by five, had to defend one more play and the Colts, the Cinderella team who was 3-13 the year before, sent up a prayer into the endzone. The Colts receiver had it in his chest, on top of his body, in the endzone, with no time left, and never closed his arms. The ball trickled away, the Steelers won and then lost to the Cowboys in the Superbowl to complete their dynasty. Thanks for nothing, both of you. Either way, if I get this matchup it'll be a nice game to watch as they are both still two of my more favorite franchises. In this case, the Steelers are the better built team, and they will win at home.

Ravens at Steelers:

Now is where you can factor in quarterbacks. It's one thing to beat a soft Dolphins team in sunny Miami and then upset a Titans team in sunny Tennessee with a chip in their armor already. It's another thing to come into Pittsburgh and be asked to beat one of the NFL's best old-school teams. Big Ben will be better prepared than Joe Flacco because let's get one thing straight: Eli Manning last year wasn't counted out because he was a rookie, he was counted out because he didn't have prior success. Joe Flacco is a rookie, and though it has no burden in early games, when you're one game from the Superbowl, on someone else's turf, and that team's defense is probably even better than yours, it could be a long night. The Steelers' trademark running game and pass rush makes them the favorite in my mind. Not because I think it's that much better than the Ravens' but because Big Ben could probably compensate for the Ravens defense shutting down his passing game, I don't think Flacco could compensate for the pass rush because though evident, the Ravens' rushing game isn't dominant. The Steelers will win this game at home, and it would be a classic Giants-Steelers matchup in the Superbowl. A one seed verse a two seed, a rematch of an earlier game this season where the Giants outlasted Pittsburgh in their own house, a matchup of two near-identical rosters, and a blood bath on SoxandPinstripes between Jeff's favorite team and my favorite team.

I'm not even going to predict a winner either. Not because I don't have confidence, but because I believe in karma and it would make no difference to predict who wins that game because it can easily go either way, besides, I'd like to hear what all of you think the matchups could be. You don't have to give me each winner like i did, but let me know who you think is in the Superbowl and who will win.

That's it for me for a couple of days, I'll try to get one more in before New Years, but I travel back to Connecticut and your terrible weather tomorrow, and then will have some things to take care of. Not to mention, in case you hadn't noticed, there's not a whole lot going on right now in sports. Happy New Year!

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