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January 02, 2009

Joel Sherman makes sense; a Red Sox blockbuster deal seems probable

I rarely believe anything I read in the New York Post, which is the major metro newspaper world's version of the National Enquirer. After all, sportswriters for the Post are under pressure to fill the pages with outlandish stories that capture readers in a city with three more reputable publications - the New York Times, Newsday and the New York Daily News. That said, Joel Sherman's column in today's Post makes a whole lot of sense. Simply put, Sherman writes that the Red Sox are pursuing a hitter via trade to bolster the lineup.

It is evident that Boston was counting on adding Mark Teixeira, but since that did not happen, Plan B has been initiated. What is Plan B, you ask? Sherman believes it involves acquiring a young veteran. I will take the scenario a step further. The Red Sox are interested in trading for a young veteran who can step in at center field or shortstop.

Before I continue, let me state that I believe in Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie. I think that both players will evolve into All-Stars. I am comfortable with the Red Sox keeping both. However, I understand if Theo Epstein chooses to add a more established bat at either position. As it is currently composed, Boston's lineup is formidable - as long as Mike Lowell and David Ortiz remain healthy. Ellsbury and Lowrie are the only projected starters who are not established, so it makes sense that center field and shortstop are the two positions that can be upgraded. Sure, the Red Sox could acquire a first baseman (like San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez), but then they would have the issue of trading Lowell. Boston could even upgrade the offense at catcher by attempting to get Joe Mauer, but chances are the Twins will not deal a Minneapolis-St. Paul product who is the face of their franchise (even more so than Justin Morneau).

Sherman suggests a deal involving Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Beltran. This proposal is laughable. Boston has one of the best 1-2-3 combinations in baseball with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Dice-K. If anything, the Sox need to add one more starter (such as Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets), even after signing Brad Penny, whose durability is questionable.

I am an advocate of keeping top prospects, unless you can deal a couple to get a difference-making, young veteran. The trade that brought Beckett and throw-in Lowell for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and Harvey Garcia is a perfect example. It was difficult to part ways with Ramirez, who is one of the game's best young players, but Boston would not have won the 2007 World Series without Beckett, who is one of the game's most dominant starting pitchers.

Boston's farm system is loaded, and Red Sox prospects in the Epstein era have a history of performing well at the major league level. Though it would be tough to part with two or more of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard and even Josh Reddick, it would be worthwhile if Boston could get someone like Hanley Ramirez, Josh Hamilton or Lance Berkman in return.

Here are some thoughts regarding a potential blockbuster deal involving the Red Sox:

  • If the Sox do trade Buchholz - and it seems like they are willing to do so, as the alleged offer to the Marlins for Ramirez suggests - they will need to sign another starting pitcher as insurance, or acquire another reliever so Justin Masterson could step into the rotation, if needed.
  • Should Boston acquire a shortstop, that does not necessarily mean that Lowrie will be dealt. He is versatile - he can play every infield position - so he would make an exceptional utility man.
  • Masterson and Lars Anderson should be untouchable, in my opinion. Masterson has the potential to be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, or a reliable set-up man, and Anderson could eventually make Boston fans forget that Teixeira signed with the Yankees.
  • If Boston does not make a blockbuster trade, it is important that the bench is strong. This is why it would be ideal to get Miguel Montero and Eric Byrnes from the Diamondbacks, and sign Mark Kotsay. Montero would serve as a frequently used backup catcher. I still believe that the Red Sox could acquire a young catcher and resign Jason Varitek. I do not think that Josh Bard is  a sure thing to make the team. Byrnes would serve as the fourth outfielder who would see playing time at all three outfield positions. Kotsay would serve as the backup first baseman and an extra outfielder. The Sox would still need a utility infielder. Julio Lugo is not the answer. Juan Uribe is one option.
  • If Epstein decides to make a blockbuster deal, I would rather see a center fielder than a shortstop. Hanley Ramirez would be moved to center field if he was brought back to the Boston organization. Hamilton would look nice in a Red Sox uniform, though it would be surprising to see Texas trade him since Milton Bradley is a free agent and not likely to resign with the Rangers. I also like the idea of Beltran in Boston. Perhaps the Mets would be interested in Ellsbury, Buchholz and a Single-A prospect.

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