Had I been able to get to this web site, I would have said the Cardinals would beat the Falcons three days ago. It was one of those games where I went from absolutely confident about Atlanta to deciding they had no chance of a victory. All you had to see was the early Matt Ryan mistake and Cardinals touchdown to know they were going to win. Give a non-confident team confidence right off the bat, at home, and you need something dramatic to turn the tides. Nothing dramatic happened. As the week went on I thought more and more about Matt Ryan and his slow decline as a rookie all year along with starting on the road in his first playoff game (where QB's are 0-6) and knew the "Buzz Saw" was going to pull it out.
Then I rooted for the Vikings.
Minnesota, for my money, outplayed the Eagles. If Brian Westbrook doesn't return one to the house, and the Eagles don't get another long play, that game is very different. You knew with two prematuraly bald coaches the game was going to be poorly managed, but you didn't think the Vikings would quit at home, down 16-14. Philadelphia is a clear-cut different team on the road, and beating the Giants twice in a month at the Meadowlands with one of the worst strageical coaches against one of the best adjustment coaches in the NFL will be difficult.
On the flip side, division rival division games can always go either way, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a spread favoring the Giants by 1 point, and at most 2.5. It's going to be close. New York will have to shut down Westbrook just like the Eagles shut down Peterson. The first team to score and keep a lead should be in a pretty solid position with both teams having lethal running games and a sure cold and windy climate. If Brandon Jacobs is fully healthy, I think the Giants pull it out, even with no Burress.
As for the Dolphins, is anybody surprised? Anyone? Anyone at all? This was the perfect follow up to my theory of giving a non-confident team confidence at home early. The Dolphins picked up the early turnover from a rookie Quarterback on the road (The Flacco handoff fumble) but despite starting with the ball in Ravens' territory, they managed just a field goal.
When your defense is able to cut the field in half and you manage just a field goal, that's almost a point for the other team. In this case, the Dolphins had a chance to get an early Touchdown at home, and instead the Ravens' defense made a statement. Then it continued to make statements for the rest of the game with Ed Reed seemingly blindfolding Chad Pennington throughout.
Colts-Chargers is the only game where I truly changed my opinion of a team. Not because the Colts lost, if you paid attention to my preview, you know that I didn't believe much in Indy, though I did expect them to pull this one out on the road. It's the Chargers who scare me a lot more now, especially with no New England in the postseason. I had no idea their running game would be that good with a banged up LT, but they have a legitimate two-man rush and that could be trouble with Philip Rivers behind center. The offense was much more explosive and the defense was efficient in holding Peyton Manning to passing yards but not a lot of scoring.
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