Care to see the Red Sox surrender a package like Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Lars Anderson for Roy Halladay? These are the type of prospects it will take to land one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. Boston might even have to add another big name, like outfielder Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish, or a shortstop like Yamaico Navarro, to entice Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi.
Let's weigh the pros and cons of Boston dealing for Halladay.
Pros
- Adding Halladay to a rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Brad Penny and Tim Wakefield would give the Red Sox an obvious advantage in 2009. The rotation is already strong, but with Halladay the Sox would be especially difficult to beat in a seven-game series. With Halladay, runs scored would be less critical. The offense is formidable enough to win since it is among the league leaders in runs, on-base percentage, OPS, walks and home runs. Halladay's presence would give Boston three shutdown starters (including Beckett and Lester), meaning that it would require fewer runs to win games.
- Halladay would also make the Sox even more formidable in 2010. He is signed through 2010, so if the team that acquires him does not lock him up long term, it would risk dealing away top prospects for just two years of the ace. Of course, if Halladay walks after 2010, the team that would acquire him this year would at least receive two draft picks when he signs elsewhere.
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The Sox are loaded with high-ceiling prospects, and the team has a proven track record in the draft. I think the Sox are Major League Baseball's equivalent to the NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers in understanding how to draft and develop players that contribute. That said, the Sox could afford to let go of Buchholz because of top starting pitching prospects like Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Casey Kelly and Stolmy Pimentel are on the horizon. Though Anderson looks like he will be a productive major league first baseman, the Sox have a similar left-handed hitting first baseman at advanced Single-A Salem in Anthony Rizzo. If Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish would be part of the deal, Boston is loaded with other outfield prospects like Ryan Westmoreland and the recently drafted Reymond Fuentes, who is off to a fast start for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox.
Cons
- Halladay is 32, and he has thrown a lot of innings in his career. It would be a risk to surrender an array of high-ceiling prospects for a guy whose right arm can break down at any moment.
- There is no doubt that Halladay is an ace, but he does not have post-season experience. How will he perform in a big game?
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Sure, the acquisition of Halladay would likely give Boston a World Series title in 2009, but would the long-term implications hurt the competitiveness of the team? Take, for example, the speculative package of prospects I mentioned earlier. Buchholz has shown that he can retire major league hitters. His confidence is back, and he has the chance to become a top of the rotation starter for several years. Anderson is a Justin Morneau-type hitter and flashes a nifty glove at first base. His left-handed swing would fit in nicely at Fenway Park. Or he could eventually replace David Ortiz as the DH. Bard has shown that he belongs in the majors, and he has given the Sox a glimpse of their future closer if Jonathan Papelbon's salary demands are outrageous when he reaches free agency. Navarro might be major league ready by 2010, and he is a gifted shortstop who can hit. Reddick and Kalish are talented defensive outfielders who can swing the bat.
This debate is a case a deja vu. We had it on Sox and Pinstripes in December 2007 when it was reported that the Sox had offered Minnesota two packages of prospects, including names like Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie. All four of these players have significantly contributed to Boston's success in 2007 and 2008. Just say the Sox dealt Ellsbury, Lester and Masterson for Santana. It is doubtful that they would have reached the ALCS last season because depth is what guided them through an injury-filled year.
I respect Halladay. Though Beckett is a proven post-season starter, Halladay is probably a step above him as an ace, at least in the regular season, because the veteran is a throwback who usually gives his team eight or nine strong innings every game. Still, I would rather see the Sox keep their stockpile of prospects. The rotation is formidable as it is. Beckett, Lester, Wakefield and Penny are pitching well. I believe that Smoltz will rebound from his shaky debut and give the Sox another quality arm. Don't forget Daisuke Matsuzaka. He is in Ft. Myers getting the spring training he did not get this spring because of the World Baseball Classic. Nothing is structurally wrong with his shoulder. He just needs to build strength and stamina, and he should return sometime in August.
Since the rotation and bullpen are deep, the Sox would be better off trading for a bat. Victor Martinez is worth giving up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden. A less costly acquisition would be Colorado's Garrett Atkins, a right-handed hitter who can play first and third. According to the Denver Post, the Red Sox have called the Rockies about Atkins, who perhaps can be had for Takashi Saito, a reliever in which the Rockies have expressed interest. The power hitter is batting just .225, but he posted a .327 average in June.
It would be surprising to see the Jays trade Halladay to the Red Sox or Yankees. The Angels are a possible destination. So is Philadelphia. Or maybe Halladay will remain in Toronto and he will be traded in the off-season. Perhaps the Jays will even keep him through 2010 since they have Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch returning from injuries, and young arms like Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond and Brett Cecil are promising. If the Jays have a healthy rotation anchored by Halladay, they can contend in 2010.
The idea of Halladay, Beckett and Lester composing three-fifths of Boston's rotation is interesting to say the least; however, the cost in prospects will be too prohibitive. Thus the reason Epstein will likely pass.
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