Yankees fans feel when CC Sabathia takes the mound, they can expect dominance in this postseason. They’re also aware (as their opponents should be as well) when Andy Pettitte pitches, he’s going to give them a solid effort when October rolls around; much like he has in all of 2009.
The one thing you can never be sure of is which AJ Burnett shows up. Luckily, the most repulsive version was lost somewhere between mid-September and the playoffs. Now we’re left with the Burnett who can have a blow up inning and walk the opponent’s roster around the bases but stay in the game, or the one capable of throwing seven innings of one run ball and making the best hitters in the game look foolish and helpless with his combination of fastballs and the best curve in the majors. Last night we got the latter and the Yankees evened the series as a result of Burnett's performance.
I wouldn't go as far as to say last night was a must-win because the Yankees seem to have the favor in pitching match up and are as good on the road as the Phillies are at home this season, but there is something to be said about being down 2-0 to the defending champs who seem to be particularly good at home in the playoffs.
Put it this way, it wasn't a position to put yourself into, and the Yankees avoided doing that.
Burnett diffused both potential blowup innings and turned it into just one combined run, then he gave the Yankees enough length to go straight to Mo and not risk what has become a late inning relief. Phil Hughes appears to have lost control of the strike zone and Joba Chamberlain hasn't been used consistently enough in one run to get a real grip on anything. Alfredo Aceves has been basically useless, Brian Bruney has been used once and Dave Robertson has inexplicably been buried most of the playoffs only to appear for a rough inning where he was consistently squeezed by mediocre umpires in this World Series. In other words, the potential for a good bullpen (much like the Phillies if they have the good Madson and Lidge) is there, but right now I wouldn't trust it completely. Either way, the Yankees have more shots at a reliever panning out in this series since they have the deeper bullpen.
Now we have a 1-1 series on our hands and Andy Pettitte against Cole Hamels in Philadelphia. If the Yankees can take the opener in Philly it sends two messages.
1. Can you really be that comfortable after Cliff Lee when you just dropped the next two games?
2. This one is going back to the Bronx again and we're not scared of your home field either.
Almost immediately this series is reminding me exactly of the 2008 ALCS. Dice-K absolutely dominated Tampa in Game One, the Red Sox, the defending champions, won the game in Tampa and all of the critics talked about their experience and how the Rays stood no chance.
In Game Two it was hard fought like Tampa had no home field whatsoever and then the Rays squeaked out a close classic, headed to Boston with an unconvincing 1-1 series where they were supposed to get dominated by such a prolific home field and late playoff experienced team.
Then they destroyed the Sox for 2.5 games and returned to Tampa up 3-2.
I see this playing out very closely, except maybe on the scoreboard. I think Game Three will be close, but you have to trust a dominant pitcher on the road against an inconsistent ace of a year ago (banished to the three spot) to at least neutralize where the teams are playing. Game Four is either CC on short rest or Chad Gaudin against Joe Blanton in a "first team not to score loses" game.
Personally, I think regardless you go with CC. This also does two things:
1. It cancels out the Cliff Lee counter. If Lee and CC are going to be a giant toss up and you're up 2-1 in the series, go with Sabathia to make it 3-1 and make Lee's start less useful. Of course, if Philly wins Game Three you go with Sabathia to avoid a 3-1 deficit. Case in point, you have to believe CC vs. Blanton is a win, even on the road. If you don't, well then maybe you shouldn't be winning the World Series to begin with.
2. Remember the 2003 World Series? The Yankees, as I have mentioned before, were in a comfortable 2-1 series lead having just won games two and three (two in NY and three in Miami) and then inexplicably Joe Torre essentially gave away Game Four in the late innings by keeping in Weaver for a second inning? Just because being up 2-1 and losing Game Four means you're at worst tied, doesn't mean the damage won't extend beyond that. If the Yankees win Game Three, you go for the jugular and a commanding 3-1 lead in Game Four. The great thing about the Yankees being in the World Series, is there are plenty of other series' to compare their games to. In terms of Yankee playoff history, this is turning into the 2003 World Series, except hopefully a deeper bullpen and a better pitching staff than the opponent won't equal the same mistakes Torre made. You don't want Cliff Lee on either field with the chance to put the series away. In terms of playoff series in general, this is exactly like the 2008 ALCS, and the two teams almost have similar personalities too except Philly's offense is a little more patient and their rotation isn't quite as deep as Tampa's.
What will truly be interesting, is when the series is tied 2-2 as I have said all along, and the final game in Philly will be either Burnett on short rest, Sabathia vs. Lee in a rematch, or Gaudin vs. Lee. Maybe even Blanton vs. Gaudin or Blanton vs. Sabathia. The possibilities are endless.
The very fact most of the next five or so games are hypotheticals right now speaks volumes about these two teams. They're so evenly matched we're consciously formulating scenarios through at least six games of the series and we haven't even approached the A-Rod/Howard dimension or if Pedro is the old Pedro?
I can tell you one thing, Burnett, at the very least, spared the Yankees and its fans of a terrible nightmare, which was losing to Pedro at home in a World Series game. Pedro pitched well, but much like Sabathia was mostly forgotten in Game One, only one pitcher is going to get credit for his performance, and it's not Martinez.
Here's what we still can look forward to in the next few games:
1. How will Brad Lidge perform? I would say the Phillies' bullpen was pretty shaky in its first appearance, but appeared to get out of it looking better than it was. The same can be said about Mariano Rivera, who was given a wide strike zone at times during his shaky performance. I have one rule in my head with Mo: If you don't hit him when he's shaky, you're not going to hit him. I think this was the WORST you see of Rivera in the series, not a sign of things to come, and the Phillies missed their chance. You can't say the same for Lidge.
2. Who will erupt first? The Phillies' 4-6 or the Yankees? Started by Howard and A-Rod, they've both been fairly quiet and that won't last.
3. Who will make the first crucial managerial mistake? Girardi who has had his moments of question this postseason, or a manager who was nicknamed by his own fanbase, "Charlie Need-a-Manuel".
Phillies fans will tell you this series isn't going back to the Bronx because in their extremely unparalleled five series sample size the last two years, no team has forced them to a Game Six. Not only could this have been different if not for the weather last year, but this Yankees' team won 103 games and while many players on the roster are young and too recent for former World Series experience, they mostly all have had playoff experience and they did win 103 games this season. This team is better than anything the NL has offered and it's a better team than the 2008 Rays. It just is.
If anybody is going to win in Philly in a seven game series, it's going to be the Yankees.
The best part about all of this is we get to see exactly how that unfolds.
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