It's always popular right around this time of year to start looking at how the rosters will set up for Major League Baseball teams. Here at Sox and Pinstripes, it's about that time to start deeply analyzing the Red Sox and Yankees in 2010.
The motto for this season should be, "What a difference a year makes".
The last time the Red Sox failed to win a playoff game was in 2006, when they failed to qualify altogether. That offseason the Sox went on a spending spree, paying a 100 million dollar package to acquire Daisuke Matsuzaka, committing a misguided 36 million to Julio Lugo in a four year deal and outbidding themselves enormously for JD Drew at five years and 14 million per season. Then they went and signed Hideki Okajima, who turned out to be one of the better setup men in baseball in 2007. In total, the Sox reacted to a disappointing 2006 by committing over 200 million dollars to the future, and adding 33 million to the books in offseason signings, not counting whoever came off the books at the end of the '06 season.
This year they're in the same boat, having failed to win a playoff game in 2009 and facing some major question marks. Jonathan Papelbon's numbers decreased....Again.
The team needs to find a way to replace the value in the most feared 3-4 duo in the game since David Ortiz is in the twilight of his career and Manny Ramirez is in Mannyland. Jason Bay was considered the first step, but he too is now gone to play for the Mets.
So the Sox went out and signed Mike Cameron, a 37 year old with a tremendous glove and decent pop despite a painfully low Batting Average and On Base Percentage, especially for a lineup which generally prides itself on high On Base Percentages.
Then they decided to not risk Mike Lowell's final year on his contract, and they signed Adrian Beltre, another player with tremendous range and a great glove, but a disappearing bat being relied upon to reappear in a hitting friendly Fenway Park instead of a pitcher's Paradise in Safeco (think, an inferior Curtis Granderson situation).
Then the Sox signed Marco Scutaro, a solid glove coming off a career year at the age of 34 playing for the division rival Blue Jays. Scutaro, even when he returns to earth in 2010, should still be a CLEAR improvement from the Nick Green, Julio Lugo, and Jed Lowrie situation the Sox had going last year. (It's a shame the Sox were somehow wrong about how great Jed Lowrie was going to be).
Finally, with the offense not likely to be as good, lacking a clear middle of the order bat, including an aging Ortiz, a no longer effective Mike Lowell, and more normal numbers from Dustin Pedroia, Boston decided to take the best starting pitcher on the market in John Lackey.
Lackey is a big game pitcher with big game experience, but he too comes with warts. He's been terrible at Fenway Park, he's been hurt back to back years and the Sox are paying him 16 million dollars per year over five seasons. Still, Lackey has number one potential when healthy and he will likely only have to be a three or four starter in Boston. The Sox, if nothing else, have a reliable and impressive front of the rotation.
This time Boston only put around 100 million into guaranteed money in the offseason and have clearly taken the route of runs prevented to counter out offensive runs lost. Personally, I like the idea of Victor Martinez for a full season, and the chances of Jacoby Ellsbury improving offensively once again, especially in left field where he will have less wear on his body defensively. It's conceivable if the breaks fall for the Red Sox, and Mike Cameron could add pop to the bottom of the order, Scutaro doesn't totally fall off a cliff from 2009, Beltre stays healthy and uses the Monster like some thing he can, Victor has a big year, Ortiz doesn't completely become a black hole and the defense works like Boston would prefer, the offense may not be missed from 2009 at all. Still, nobody in that lineup is particularly scary.
We just reviewed the Yankees' improvements yesterday, so now I think it's safe to look at the strengths, weaknesses and variables of both teams as they stand now.
Red Sox Strengths:
1. Marco Scutaro playing shortstop. As I said, anything he does will be better than what the Sox usually have going on at that position.
2. John Lackey. It's not out of the realm of possibility, Lackey could be the 4th best pitcher in this rotation. He was the top pitcher for the team who swept the Sox and made it to the ALCS last season.
3. Beckett in a walk year. Doesn't Beckett seem like the type of guy who would have a ridiculous 2010 because it's a walk year?
4. Jacoby Ellsbury in left. Ellsbury in left could figure out his range issues despite his speed, protect his weak arm, add more value as a corner outfielder and save his body so he could avoid late season and playoff dropoffs. It truly was the best move Boston made all offseason. Now they just need to hope Cameron could handle center.
5. Dice-K is healthy. Think of him what you will, but at the very least Dice-K is healthy for a full season. He racked up a lot of wins for two years before falling apart last season, so it will be interesting to see what he does in 2010. Either way, I'd take Dice-K over a full year of Wakefield or Michael Bowden.
6. Victor is in the house. A full year of Victor Martinez will make Jason Varitek's bat a distant memory so it could die a peaceful and overlooked death. Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation, Jason Varitek caught FOUR no-hitters, and he is the greatest pitch-caller to ever walk the earth, two legs or otherwise. Therefore, whatever Victor does on offense will be canceled out because Varitek won't be dropping a finger or two behind home plate. Sorry Boston fans, enjoy your league worst pitching staff with no Captain to make them pitch well.
Red Sox Weaknesses:
Age: If you purely add and subtract, Boston should gain four or five wins from last season based on who they gained and lost from the offseason. Mike Cameron alone had a 4.3 WAR for Milwaukee, until you factor in he's turning 37 and coming from the NL Central to the AL East and taking on a pretty complicated centerfield in Boston under the bright lights and pressure from Red Sox Nation.
Likely whatever Cameron loses in value this year can be made up by Adrian Beltre, but Beltre and Cameron together are already trying to replace Bay. Beltre also had a career defensive year in 2009, at least since 2006 which makes it unlikely for him to be quite as dominant in 2010, but the newly found offense from the Fenway tonic should help his value regardless. Unfortunately, Jason Varitek's corpse still takes a spot on this roster, and so does David Ortiz and Mike Lowell. This isn't 2007 anymore, so likely none of these three players will make positive impacts without some artificial help. Possibly a hip for Mike Lowell or wrists for Ortiz when he tries to hit a fastball.
Case in point, the Sox have some formerly major players who are now facing the end of their tenures, and though those players have replacements, those replacements have their own question marks. While we like to harp on the new left side of the infield with Scutaro and Beltre, new fields don't always translate well, especially a place like Fenway where players like Edgar Renteria have developed a case of the dropsies and blamed it on the infield grass. If the main focus here is run prevention, players from other places aren't always the safest best, especially when the most important piece defensively, is due to head into the twilight of his career.
Health: This ties in with age. In 2009 the Yankees had a bunch of health concerns with players like A-Rod, Wang, Posada, Chamberlain, Matsui, Hughes, Burnett, Pettitte and others from the core having missed time in recent memory. As it turns out, most of those concerns turned out more to be wishful criticisms and the Yankees won the World Series. This year the Sox have Mike Cameron, Mike Lowell, John Lackey, Dice-K, David Ortiz and Marco Scutaro all facing a similar situation and question of health in their futures.
The Offense: I think because someone like Peter Gammons predictably doesn't show concern, it's easy to forget what Jason Bay meant to the 2009 Red Sox. For that matter, what Bay did since he was acquired in 2008. It was easy to forget about the loss of Manny and the steady decline of Ortiz in 2008 because Bay put up about an RBI a game down the stretch and continued to hit right through to the Game Seven defeat to Tampa. Then Bay became an MVP candidate through to the All Star Break in 2009. It was literally two bad months out of eight in his tenure with Boston, and the fans and media collectively turned on him. The Sox will find a way to score runs. We know they're patient, and we know they have "professional hitters" for whatever that means, but no bonafied run producers is a problem for any lineup. V-Mart in a full season could be one of those guys, but he's mostly a catcher and catcher's don't particularly get relied upon to carry an offensive load. They have Youkilis, but he is what he is at this point and at best, could be half a solution.
Gone are the days of 90 home runs and 250+ RBI from Manny and Ortiz, and without Bay, the Sox may need three guys just to duplicate that. The late 90's Yankees are often looked at as teams who did not have a middle of the order bat and still won. They also had historically good starting pitching, defense and relievers. The Sox may have the defense and rotation to offset a flat lineup, but I don't even think you can argue about the bullpen. You're also talking about an inferior product on the bench and the bottom of a lineup for a team in a game that is simply played differently on offense. I think it's a pipe dream to try to use the late 90's Yankees as a blueprint to win today's game and the Sox will miss the threat of Bay's bat more than the media would have you believe.
Variables which could help or hurt the Red Sox:
The Year of the Buchholz: Look, I know it's going to seem biased to pick on Clay Buchholz after the finish he had to 2009. But I'm going to do it anyway. Buchholz had 11 starts, most of which (probably 10 of them) were impressive and borderline dominant. He then put up one of the better performances in the Sox brief postseason appearance. Still, it was one third of a season and we're talking about a guy in the "put up or shut up" stage of his career.
Buchholz not only has to prove he can be a MLB starter for a full year, but he has the burden of being considered an "Ace" by the Red Sox' brass as well. I just don't think 11 starts in mostly low pressure siuations against numerous "B" lineups assures me he's going to be solid this season. I'm sorry but Joba faced the same criticisms going into last season and even he at least shined for the better part of four months before this year. Buchholz has proven very little, but the positive is he could also turn a lot of heads this year as well, mine included.
Hitting the broadside of a Bard: I know Sox players have turned into a love affair from the system since the influx of Ellsbury, Papelbon, Pedroia and Youkilis, but let's not get carried away. For each of those players is a Craig Hansen, a Jed Lowrie, a Brandon Moss and Michael Bowden, players who have been highly touted and then proven absolutely nothing at the big league level. There are plenty more projected to be huge from early levels of the minors who never even get far enough to prove they're a bust. Daniel Bard has good stuff, he can throw 100 and he has a nasty secondary pitch. My problem isn't that I think Bard can't be a good reliever because he has an impressive rookie season and visually, he looks like a legit player. My problem is asking him to be a setup man for an entire season and then face the possibility of being the next closer when we know very little about his makeup still. At least the Yankees' top three setup man candidates have all pitched since at least 2008 and weren't callups last year. Then again, Bard could be the next stud like Papelbon was, and the Sox would have adequately protected against Jonathan's loud, obnoxious, completely unprofessional, premadonna, mouth.
Beltre in a Boston Ballpark: It's widely considered Adrian Beltre would find his groove hitting in Fenway instead of Safeco. Peter Gammons even said he'd hit more homers this year than Jason Bay will in Queens. I think logically, this makes sense. Fenway is notorious for raising batting averages, particularly for righties with a large wall to play with in short left field and odd dimensions conducive to big offensive seasons all around the park. For as much criticism as Yankee Stadium gets for being home-run friendly, Fenway is worse in the grand scheme of things when discussing offensive handicaps. My problem isn't the rationale for Beltre putting up a solid year in a self-made walk year with the bat. My problem is the downside. If Beltre doesn't recover like he's supposed to, if the wall messes with him, if tougher pitching in a tougher division in bigger games doesn't agree with him, well that's just another shot to an already fragile Boston offense.
Mike Cameron: Cameron is the biggest example of age being a major factor. He is in his late 30's being demanded to play an elite defense in a tough position reliant on complete health Furthermore, he's switching leagues, and being asked to at least contribute with power offensively. Oh, and at 37 and roaming Boston's outfield, he's being asked to stay completely healthy too. If he doesn't, well he's going to learn a few things about the Boston media compared to Milwaukee's sooner than he'd prefer and for the wrong reasons.
Oh Captain, my Captain: Was there any bigger exaggeration of the last five years than the ability of Jason Varitek to make pitching decisions for above average, sometimes dominant, sometimes Hall of Fame caliber pitchers in Boston this past decade? Seriously, when Varitek could still hit at all his play-calling was supposed to make him an elite catcher, the best in the game, the best captain, the best at what he does. Why? Two rings and four no-hitters. I guess by that logic, since play-calling isn't defied by age like Varitek's bat and throwing arm have been, the Sox are really screwed with Victor Martinez behind the plate and only his "above-average" knowledge of calling pitches. That or very good Sox pitching staff will pitch very well if it stays healthy because it's full of very good pitchers.
Coming up tomorrow: A look at the 2010 Yankees.
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